The U.S. inflation data for February did not change the main direction of the market; it is the risk of war that has truly altered pricing. As tensions rise in the Middle East and the risk of passage through the Strait of Hormuz increases, global investors are shifting from the "slow cooling of inflation" narrative to "whether an energy shock will reignite inflation." The drop in U.S. stocks, a sharp rise in oil prices, a strengthening dollar, while Bitcoin remains volatile at high levels, are manifestations of this logic reflected across different asset classes.
Inflation Data Itself Not Hawkish
According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the CPI in February rose by 0.3% month-on-month, and 2.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI increased by 2.5% year-on-year. From a static perspective, this set of data implies that U.S. price pressures did not accelerate again, at least within the February statistical period, as inflation generally continued a modest slowing trend.
However, the issue is that the market is no longer trading February, but rather the potential energy transmission that might arise in late March. If oil and natural gas prices remain high, costs for gasoline, jet fuel, logistics, and manufacturing could all rise, altering the CPI trajectory and rate expectations for the coming months.
Crude Oil Regains Global Pricing Center Stage
On March 11, the IEA announced that member countries unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves, marking the largest scale of release in history. Despite this, the market's focus remains on more critical issues: whether strait navigation will resume, how marine insurance and shipping costs will change, and whether production cuts and logistical bottlenecks by oil-producing countries will widen.
On March 12, Brent crude briefly exceeded $100, and WTI rose above $93. Goldman Sachs believes that if the Strait of Hormuz's flow remains low for an extended period, daily oil prices may even challenge historical extremes. This indicates that the emergency release can buffer sentiment, but it is difficult to fully replace the actual functions of global key maritime routes.
Stock and Currency Markets Enter Defensive Mode
In the U.S. stock market, the Dow dropped 289 points at the close on March 11, the S&P 500 slightly fell, and the Nasdaq edged up, showing that the market is not in a complete panic, but rather is experiencing a noticeable structural repricing. High oil prices pressure industries, transportation, and discretionary consumption, but some tech giants still benefit from profit certainty.
In contrast, the forex market's direction is more unified. The dollar has been consistently strengthening and is nearing its yearly high, behind this are both risk-aversion buying and a fundamental logic where the U.S. benefits relatively after energy prices rise. For energy-importing economies like Europe and Japan, high oil prices present a greater dilemma of growth and inflation.
Bitcoin Remains Under Macro Constraints
In the realm of crypto assets, Bitcoin briefly climbed back above 70,000 dollars but did not form a clear breakout. During Asian trading on March 12, Bitcoin fell back below 70,000 dollars, indicating the market still sees it as a high-volatility risk asset rather than a stable safe haven tool. If oil prices continue to surge and delay major central bank rate cuts, valuation for digital assets might still be suppressed.
