- Broadcom Inc. (AVGO:US) saw its stock price significantly retreat by 13.0% in pre-market trading after releasing its latest financial report. This was mainly due to the management maintaining its long-term sales forecast for the artificial intelligence semiconductor business, which failed to meet the market's high expectations, dragging down the Nasdaq 100 futures by 1.2%.
- Signs of cross-asset revaluation emerged as geopolitical tensions marginally eased. Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire, causing Brent crude oil futures to fall by 1.5% to $96.30 per barrel, while New York gold futures rose by 0.5% and then consolidated narrowly at $4,488.40 per ounce.
- Global currency and crypto markets experienced increased volatility. The US dollar index remained stable near a two-month high of 99.45, the yen rebounded at the critical level of 159.90 against the dollar, and the revaluation of risk assets led Bitcoin to briefly hit a four-month low of $59,900.
High-Valuation Tech Growth Stocks and Expectation Management
The market's pricing of the artificial intelligence theme is facing a phase of correction. Although Broadcom achieved a net revenue of $22.19 billion in the second fiscal quarter, up 48% year-on-year, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.44, exceeding the market expectation of $2.40, the decision to maintain the annual AI chip revenue target at $56 billion without an upward revision led to concentrated profit-taking. This volatility also affected cybersecurity provider CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD:US), which recorded a significant pre-market pullback of 11.0%. Asset management firms noted that this indicates a technical consolidation need after a prolonged market rally, with investors reassessing whether chip demand can continue to grow exponentially indefinitely.
Marginal Easing of Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Restructuring
In terms of Middle Eastern geopolitical changes, the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel provided breathing space for energy and fixed income markets. Although localized conflicts within Lebanon persist and Iran stated that temporary agreement negotiations have not made substantial progress, the ceasefire expectations effectively stripped away some geopolitical premiums. Brent crude oil prices, after facing the first single-day decline of the week, touched the $97 per barrel mark. Analysts pointed out that despite an 8 million barrel reduction in US commercial crude oil inventories, the overall release of tactical and strategic reserves provides a buffer for potential tightening in the third quarter. If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz can be properly resolved in the short term, the risk premium in global stock markets is expected to decline further.
Tug-of-War in Fixed Income and Forex Markets
Global bond yields showed narrow fluctuations following macro events. The US 10-year Treasury yield slightly fell by 1 basis point to 4.48%, while the German 10-year bond yield declined by 1.5 basis points to 3.02%. In the forex market, a strong US services PMI supported the dollar index near a two-month high. The yen found breathing space before the 160 intervention line due to hints of a rate hike within the month by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. In contrast, the pullback in crypto assets was more pronounced, with Bitcoin facing a directional choice after falling below the estimated mining cost range, and the 200-week moving average at the $60,000 mark has become the current focal point of the bull-bear struggle.
