Yesterday, international oil prices rebounded strongly, with Brent crude rising 2.8% to $62.84 per barrel, and US WTI crude rising 3.2% to $59.91 per barrel. However, during the Asian trading session on Friday, oil prices could not maintain Thursday's strong upward momentum and slightly retreated.
The main driver of this oil price rebound is market optimism about the upcoming trade talks between US Treasury Secretary Besent and Asian economic officials. Despite price increases, analysts point out that market volatility may persist due to ongoing trade concerns.
Jim Ritterbusch of US energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates said, "In recent years, global risk premiums driving oil prices up and down have been replaced by tariff premiums, which fluctuate with the latest news from the Trump administration." US President Trump and British Prime Minister Stamer announced a "breakthrough" trade agreement, yet the US maintains a 10% tariff on UK products, although the UK will reduce tariffs on US products from 5.1% to 1.8% and provide more market access for US goods. This progress sends a positive signal but also highlights the ongoing frictions in the current trade situation.
Although OPEC+ announced production increases, actual production growth is limited due to geopolitical factors. Market surveys show declining supplies in Venezuela, continued pressure from US sanctions, and Iraq and Libya failing to boost output.
Citi's research team stated that if the US reaches a nuclear agreement with Iran, Brent oil prices could drop to $50 per barrel due to increased supply. However, if negotiations fail, prices could rise above $70.
From a technical perspective, US crude's daily chart shows a clear short-term uptrend, with the current price rising near $60 and successfully breaking through several short-term moving averages. The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages are arranged in a bullish pattern, indicating strong short-term market sentiment.
In terms of technical indicators, the MACD lines have just formed a golden cross, with the momentum bar turning positive, suggesting further upward momentum in the short term; the RSI indicator is at 63, not yet in the overbought zone but approaching the caution range, implying limited upside potential.
Current oil prices are approaching the key resistance level of $60.50. If this resistance is broken, further tests of the previous high near $62 and the upper Bollinger band are possible. However, if the rise is halted, the market may pull back, with important short-term support at $57.80 (20-day moving average position) and stronger support around $55.
Overall, although the short-term technical outlook is bullish, caution is needed as prices approach resistance areas due to the risk of high-level fluctuations. Global trade dynamics and geopolitical risks will directly influence market sentiment.
