- The international spot gold price fell by 0.5% during the day to $4,542.07 per ounce, continuing to operate below the 100-hour moving average, further establishing a bearish technical trend.
- The swap market has completely removed the pricing of Federal Reserve rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December implied by the CME FedWatch tool sharply rising to nearly 40%.
- Trump announced a temporary halt to attacks on Iranian military facilities to buy negotiation time, causing a marginal and temporary decline in geopolitical risk premiums, diverting short-term safe-haven buying of precious metals.
Reconstruction of Interest Rate Expectations and Rate Hike Premium
The global fixed income market's repricing of inflation stickiness has directly impacted the holding structure of non-yielding assets. Influenced by the long-term high energy costs due to conflicts in the Middle East, the upward risk of the U.S. Consumer Price Index continues to spread, forcing interest rate swap traders to systematically erase all implied volatility of rate cuts in 2026. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains near its highest level in over a year, significantly raising the opportunity cost of holding gold. In the absence of interest rate protection, long positions are marginally sold off, with funds once again accumulating in dollar cash and short-term U.S. Treasury interest-bearing assets.
Marginal Slowdown in Geopolitical Games and Diversion of Safe-Haven Flows
Although President Trump announced on Monday that a comprehensive attack plan against Iran has been suspended and hinted at the possibility of reaching an agreement to limit Iran's nuclear program, this has not reversed the more than 13% downward trend in gold prices since the outbreak of hostilities. Market participants remain cautious in asset pricing due to complex signals from Tehran. Iranian President Pezeh Kiziyan emphasized that they will not yield to any external forces, indicating that the long-term confrontational nature of geopolitics has not been completely eradicated. As the U.S. military is instructed to maintain full combat readiness, this prolonged standoff has instead strengthened the dollar's status as a global sovereign reserve currency, creating a substitution effect for safe-haven capital flows away from gold.
Monetary Policy Outlook and Meeting Minutes Node
Due to the typical hawkish suppression in the macroeconomic background, international gold prices have lacked rebound momentum after hitting a one-and-a-half-month low of $4,479.54. A macro strategy analyst at Saxo Bank pointed out that energy prices remaining above $110 per barrel have disrupted the global total supply curve, preventing bulls from establishing sustainable strategic long positions at current levels. In the short term, buying institutions generally maintain a defensive strategy, preferring to remain on the sidelines before the release of the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes on Wednesday, in order to find substantial evidence of potential tightening policy paths within the year.
Technical Breakout Momentum and Establishment of Bearish Trend
From high-frequency technical charts, the current gold price is operating below the 100-hour moving average of $4,625.58, indicating that bears firmly control intraday trading. Although the latest MACD indicator remains barely in the positive zone at 3.32, it clearly suggests that the previous rebound momentum is in a decaying channel. The Relative Strength Index is near 51.7, reflecting extremely mild support from bullish buying. Analysts generally believe that before gold prices effectively break below the psychological threshold of $4,500 and further breach the overnight key support area of $4,480, the market will maintain a highly volatile downward tendency.
