On Monday (November 18) during the Asian trading session, spot gold opened higher and rose significantly, at one point surpassing $2,597 per ounce, rising more than $30 compared to last Friday's close. This surge was mainly driven by the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with increased market concerns over future geopolitical uncertainties.
Russia Launches "Largest Scale" Airstrike
On November 17, Russia carried out the "largest scale" missile strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities and military-industrial targets since the conflict began. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the airstrikes focused on key infrastructure, and all tasks were completed. Explosions were heard in Kyiv and several places, and Ukraine was forced to implement emergency power cut measures. Ukrainian sources reported that the Russian military fired approximately 120 missiles and deployed 90 drones, with 140 targets intercepted by air defense systems.
The Ukrainian president stated that the attacks targeted energy infrastructure, causing power outages and casualties in multiple areas, with recovery efforts underway. Additionally, Ukrainian sources reported that the Russian military used various advanced weapons including "Kinzhal" hypersonic missiles. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones attacked Russia's Bryansk region, but Russian air defense systems successfully intercepted some of the targets.
US Policy Shift, Allows Ukraine to Hit Russian Hinterlands
Sources revealed that the US government has allowed Ukraine to use American-made weapons to strike targets within Russia. This decision is seen as a significant shift in US policy regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Ukraine reportedly plans to conduct its first long-range strike in the coming days, potentially using ATACMS rockets with a range of 306 kilometers. This move by the US has attracted widespread attention, with Russia warning that it will be seen as a major escalation in the conflict, potentially leading to severe consequences.
Analysts believe that this policy shift may be intended to help Ukraine gain the upper hand on the battlefield, thereby gaining an advantage in future ceasefire negotiations. However, some officials are cautious about whether this decision will truly alter the course of the conflict.
Safe-Haven Sentiment Lifts Gold Prices, Technical Focus on Key Support Levels
The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has quickly heightened market demand for safe havens, boosting gold prices. Despite the US dollar index remaining strong after Trump's election, reaching a one-year high of 107.07, gold did not explore further lows during last week's correction, indicating waning downward momentum. Additionally, gold prices have stabilized near the 100-day moving average, attracting bargain hunters and providing support for the rise in gold prices.
In the short term, gold prices face a key resistance level at $2,600 per ounce. If this position can be breached, further attempts at the 55-day moving average resistance near $2,639 are likely. If gold prices fall below $2,577, caution is needed for the potential risk of retesting the 100-day moving average.
Future Outlook
As the Russia-Ukraine conflict becomes more complex and US policy adjusts, the market will continue to closely monitor the impact of geopolitical dynamics on global financial markets. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, may continue to be supported by these factors in the short term. Furthermore, the market also needs to closely watch the movements of the US dollar and changes in Federal Reserve policies for their potential impact on the gold market.
