Regarding gold:
Last night (August 15), the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 10 came in lower than expected, marking the second consecutive week of decline and dropping to its lowest level since early July. Additionally, the U.S. retail sales month-over-month for July recorded 1%, far exceeding the expected 0.3% and the previous value of -0.2%, helping to alleviate investors' concerns about a sharp economic slowdown.
Following the data release, the swap market's forecasts indicate that the Federal Reserve's rate cut in 2024 may be less than 100 basis points, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising from 65% on Wednesday (August 14) to 74.5%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut decreased.
Technical analysis: Gold has been fluctuating at high levels for nearly four months on the daily chart, and a unilateral trend is about to start. Caution is needed regarding changes in the movement rhythm. In the short term, gold has surged near previous highs in recent days, with bears failing to cause significant declines, indicating the bulls are in control. If it breaks above $2470 intraday, it could accelerate and set a new all-time high.
Regarding crude oil:
Boosted by the data, all three major U.S. indices accelerated their rise, and oil prices also witnessed a certain degree of rebound.
St. Louis Fed President Bullard stated that inflation has returned to the expected track of steadily declining to the 2% target level, and the labor market no longer poses a risk to inflation. With the meeting approaching, the time for adjusting to a moderately tight policy may be near.
In last month's policy meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that with cooling inflation, the Fed needs to balance considerations of employment and inflation more carefully. Some investors believed that the Fed should have cut rates during the July meeting; however, they chose to maintain the status quo. Nonetheless, a rate cut in September seems certain, whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points remains to be seen.
Technical analysis: Crude oil surged and then pulled back this week, with a significant correction that briefly fell below the key $78 level. If it can stay above $78.50 intraday, it might challenge the $80 mark; otherwise, it will continue to fluctuate downward.
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