U.S. commercial crude inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels last week, 700,000 barrels more than expected. Meanwhile, Strategic Petroleum Reserves increased by 740,000 barrels, maintaining its recovery pace since mid-December last year.
Alex Kuptsikevich, senior analyst at FxPro, pointed out: "Crude oil production has maintained a growth rate of 13.1 million barrels per day for the third consecutive week. At current supply levels, commercial stocks are 5.5% lower than the same period last year and remain near the lower end of the range over the past nine years. However, before 2015, a level of 400 million barrels was historically a high point."
At the current rate, it would take nearly a year to start depleting stocks by June 2021. It would require almost 9.5 years to return to the peak levels of 2011.
However, it is unlikely that we will see commercial or strategic stocks rebound to high levels in the short term. Considering the production has more than doubled in the past 15 years, the United States' reduced dependence on imports, and the development of "new energy," this is unfeasible.
The higher-than-expected stock levels have not put pressure on prices. The price per barrel of WTI is still close to $81, maintaining the upper limit of the upward range that has existed since last December.
