The naphtha market remained largely stable on Friday, but "stable" itself indicates that the supply-demand conflict has not yet eased. According to the Refinitiv data you provided, naphtha prices for shipments in the latter half of May are around $1,144 per ton, and the crack spread for Asian naphtha against Brent is reported at $413.43 per ton. Although slightly down from the previous day, it remains near record highs. On the surface, oil prices should have eased naphtha prices after the ceasefire; however, the reality shows that shipping disruptions through Hormuz have kept Middle Eastern naphtha supply significantly low. Asian buyers have no choice but to continue sourcing from farther distances.
Reuters on April 9 indicated that the Asian refined oil and crude oil markets are not facing short-term price sentiment issues, but actual physical flows remain scarce. Kpler data shows a significant drop in Asian maritime crude oil imports in April compared to the quarterly average, and refined oil exports have also weakened noticeably. The supplementary data you provided further illustrates the naphtha market's resilience: in April, Asian imports of naphtha from the United States rose to about 200,000 barrels per day, far higher than March's 54,000 barrels per day; naphtha supply from the Middle East may only be about 235,000 barrels per day, significantly lower than the pre-war level of about 1.4 million barrels per day in February. In other words, the current Asian naphtha market demand is not unusually strong—it's being forced to use more expensive and distant alternative sources due to a sharp reduction in traditional supply lines.
Diesel: Surface Stability, Underlying Strains
The diesel market similarly displayed "stable prices, tight fundamentals" on Friday. According to the Refinitiv data you provided, the Asian diesel crack spread is about $62 per barrel, rising for the second consecutive trading day but still below last week's high. Singapore's diesel spot price differential slightly fell to about $36.1 per barrel, while jet fuel/diesel spreads modestly declined to a premium of about $13 per barrel. The window for trading is noticeably slowing down, with sellers starting to emerge, but this does not yet signify genuine supply relief, as some jet fuel tender prices for May are only slightly below April, not back to pre-conflict norms.
On a broader scale, diesel remains one of the most sensitive refined products in this round of Middle East conflict. Reuters earlier pointed out that Asian diesel and jet fuel spot premiums surged to multi-year highs early in the conflict. While they have eased with ceasefire expectations, market tension is not truly over. U.S. and European refineries are increasing diesel and jet fuel exports to overseas markets to fill gaps in Middle Eastern and Asian supply. U.S. exports of refined products reached a record in March, doubling exports to Asia from February levels. In other words, the current stability of the Asian diesel market relies heavily on cross-regional supplies rather than a restoration of local supply-demand balance.
Market Implications
This situation also determines the trading logic of the current Asian oil market: a ceasefire headline can eliminate the most extreme risk premiums, but cannot immediately return the spot structure to a pre-war state. Fuel oil is supported by declining inventories and ship fuel demand, naphtha by Middle Eastern supply gaps and long-distance substitutes, while diesel continues to be constrained by regional middle distillate tightness. As long as the recovery of Hormuz transit is slower than expected, and Asian crude and refined oil import speeds lag behind normal levels, the market is more likely to maintain "high-level consolidation, localized rebounds" rather than "continuous declines."
