Barclays has raised its forecast for the average price of Brent crude in 2026 to $85 per barrel, due to a significant decrease in oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the Middle East conflict, tightening global supply. The bank noted in a research report that production shutdowns in the Gulf region have exceeded 10 million barrels per day, providing ongoing support to the market.
Barclays stated that its baseline scenario assumes that the situation in the Strait will return to normal within two to three weeks. However, if the return to normalcy is delayed to four to six weeks, Brent oil prices may be repriced to the $100 per barrel level.
Although the International Energy Agency has released strategic reserves to alleviate the supply shock, the market remains highly vigilant about the duration of the conflict. On Friday, Brent crude futures settled at $103.14 per barrel, up 2.67%.
