The global foreign exchange market is entering a phase dominated by risk aversion, with geopolitical conflicts and surging energy prices reshaping the structure of major currency trends.
The US dollar index has risen above 100, continuing its rebound trend since the escalation of the Middle East conflict. Rising oil prices are driving up inflation expectations and prompting the market to reassess global interest rate paths, channeling funds into assets like the dollar for their liquidity and safety.
The euro and pound are under pressure, reflecting an overall weakening of non-US currencies amid the impact of risk events.
The Australian dollar is showing relative complexity. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points to 4.1%, the vote was 5 to 4, indicating a high level of uncertainty about policy direction. The market had already factored in strong hawkish expectations, leading to an exchange rate pullback after the "good news" was realized.
The yen remains a focal point in the market. Exchange rates are approaching the 160 mark, heightening market expectations of possible intervention by Japan in the forex market. However, in a high oil price environment, Japan's trade conditions are deteriorating, exerting sustained pressure on the yen.
This week, major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England, will release policy decisions, with market attention shifting from interest rates to forward guidance and the assessment of the impact of the war.
