Gold Market:
Last week, gold maintained an upward momentum, setting recent highs. Considering both technical and news factors, gold is likely to reach new highs. Especially after this weekend's incident where Trump was shot at a campaign event, market risk aversion sentiment is likely to rise.
The shooting incident involving the Republican presidential candidate Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania could be a pivotal moment that completely overturns the 2023 US election landscape. Currently, Trump's probability of winning the November election has soared to about 70%, giving him a significant chance of victory.
The shooting incident may drive the Trump trade, with market funds likely to flow into safe-haven assets such as gold, the US dollar, and US bonds. Driven by risk aversion sentiment, gold has the opportunity to test previous highs or even set new historical records.
Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, gold's highs are near horizontal levels, showing an overall upward trend. The 1-hour moving averages are bullishly divergent, maintaining a good upward trend with signs of overbought conditions, indicating a high probability of a short-term pullback. However, the outlook should not be overly bearish. In the short term, focus on the $2383 support line.
Crude Oil Market:
Last week, oil prices primarily underwent a pullback adjustment, ending a streak of four consecutive weeks of increases. US inflation data raised market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, but the actual support for oil prices was limited, and prices may continue to adjust.
In the short term, US oil consumption is at a cyclical peak, with gasoline demand reaching 9.4 million barrels per day in the week ending July 5, the highest in over four years. Jet fuel demand has also reached levels not seen since 2020, prompting US refineries to maintain high utilization rates.
There are also bearish factors, including the International Energy Agency's (IEA) downward revision of global oil demand forecasts due to a slowing global economy and the rising share of renewable energy. Additionally, data shows that the past two months have seen a year-on-year decline in crude oil imports and consumption in major Asian economies, dampening bullish enthusiasm.
Technical Analysis: The daily chart shows a small bearish candle with a long upper shadow, indicating upward pressure. The 4-hour cycle shows descending highs, and the price has broken below long-term moving average support, suggesting a likely continuation of the pullback. In the short term, focus on the $82.80 resistance level. [Important Disclaimer: The above content and views are provided by the third-party partner platform Zhisheng for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors should operate at their own risk.]
