On Monday during the Asian session, precious metals strengthened again after last week's "rapid rise and fall": gold returned to near the $5,000 mark, while silver continued its quick recovery from the lows. The market is short-term digesting the decline in geopolitical risk premiums while turning its attention to this week's heavy U.S. economic data.
Gold returns near $5,000, intraday peaks at $5,046
In terms of quotations, spot gold rose to about $4,996 per ounce, with an intraday high reaching about $5,046; April gold futures also stood at about $5,016. This rebound is more like a "rebalancing after volatility"—after short-term selling pressure was released, buying resumed to refill some positions.
Silver shows greater elasticity: accelerating recovery from last week's lows
Compared to gold, silver's fluctuations are more intense: spot silver rose to around $80.53 per ounce, moving further away from last week's lows near $60. With silver possessing both safe-haven and industrial properties, funds are more prone to "quick retreat-quick replenishment" two-way trades during volatility cycles.
Cooling of risk aversion: US-Iran continued negotiations lowering geopolitical premiums
A critical variable affecting risk appetite is the Middle East situation. Reuters reported that the indirect talks on the US-Iran nuclear issue over the weekend signaled "continued dialogue," easing market worries about supply disruptions and escalation of conflicts, thus cooling some safe-haven buying.
Background to last week's violent fluctuations: strong dollar and policy uncertainties
One key clue to last week's significant volatility in precious metals was the change in dollar and policy expectations. Reuters mentioned that under the influence of news that Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, the dollar strengthened temporarily, putting pressure on precious metals, with some funds choosing to take profit after previous gains.
This week's focus: U.S. employment and inflation data to determine "dollar direction"
Next, the market will place more weight on U.S. data, especially employment and inflation indicators, to determine the Fed's path and the continuity of the dollar's strength. Reuters also pointed out that investors are awaiting the upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data to assess rate-cut expectations and sentiment towards risk assets.
Other precious metals: Platinum is weaker
Within the precious metals sector, platinum is relatively lagging: spot platinum fell to around $2,068 per ounce, contrasting with the movements of gold and silver, also indicating that the "safe-haven/speculative demand" differentiation among different metals remains evident.
