Global Central Bank Policy Outlook: Diverse Adjustments with Far-reaching Impacts
As the global economic environment evolves, the major central banks will further adjust monetary policy in 2025 to tackle challenges such as inflation, economic growth, and geopolitical tensions. The policy directions of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan will be crucial factors influencing global financial markets.
The Federal Reserve: Careful Rate Cuts, Maintaining Flexibility
Current Policy Overview
The Federal Reserve reduced rates by 25 basis points at the end of 2024, stating that its policy stance is no longer significantly restrictive. According to the latest economic forecasts, the median expectation for the federal funds rate by the end of 2025 is 3.9%, higher than the previous estimate of 3.4%. This suggests a more cautious approach to rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Future Policy Outlook
Although the Federal Reserve is gradually easing its policy, its actions might fall short of market expectations, with only a 35 basis point cut anticipated in 2025. The Federal Reserve will continue to adjust its policy to achieve its dual goals of full employment and price stability while dealing with the challenges posed by persistent inflation.
Impact on the Dollar
If the Federal Reserve continues its tough stance on inflation, the dollar could remain strong. Forex market analysts indicate that the dollar may maintain its advantage over major currencies in 2025.
European Central Bank: Accelerated Easing, Cooling Inflation
Current Policy Overview
The European Central Bank lowered rates by 25 basis points in December 2024, noting that inflation is approaching its mid-term target of 2%. The slowing economic recovery has made its policy more dovish, with some council members even discussing the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut.
Future Policy Outlook
As economic recovery slows and inflationary pressures ease, the European Central Bank may accelerate policy easing in 2025. However, an accelerated easing policy might limit the euro's appreciation potential.
Euro to Dollar Outlook
At the end of 2024, the euro reached an annual low of 1.0333 against the dollar and continues to face pressure. If it fails to break through the key resistance level of 1.0410, it may continue to fall to 1.0200 or lower; conversely, if it stabilizes at 1.0610, it could rebound to the 1.0870-1.0940 range.
Bank of Japan: Easing Policy Faces Possible Pressure
Current Policy Overview
At its December 2024 meeting, the Bank of Japan kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.25%. Despite global central banks adjusting policies, the Bank of Japan maintains a dovish stance, with core CPI expected to gradually rise.
Future Policy Outlook
The Bank of Japan may continue its easing policy in 2025, but as economic growth exceeds potential levels, there could be pressure to raise rates. If the Bank of Japan adopts a hawkish policy, it will have significant implications for capital flows and the yen's trajectory.
Yen to Dollar Outlook
As of the end of 2024, the dollar reached a new annual high of 157.92 against the yen. If it surpasses 160.40, it may approach the 1986 high of 163.95; if it doesn't break through, it could fall back within the 2024 range.
Key Factors in Global Policy Dynamics
Federal Reserve's Pace of Rate Cuts
The Federal Reserve may decelerate its rate cuts in response to economic resilience and inflationary pressures. However, new economic policies potentially introduced following Trump's re-election, including tax cuts and trade tariff measures, may impact its policy.
European Central Bank's Easing Policy
The European Central Bank may speed up rate cuts to support economic recovery, but dovish policies could restrict the euro's rebound.
Bank of Japan's Policy Adjustments
Whether the Bank of Japan shifts to a hawkish stance will be a significant variable affecting the yen's movement and forex market capital flows.
Geopolitical and Trade Policy
The uncertainty of Trump's policies, including potential adjustments in trade policy, may have widespread effects on open economies and global monetary policy.
Market Volatility Triggered by Policy Adjustments
In 2025, changes in the policies of major global central banks will have profound impacts on forex markets and the financial system. The Federal Reserve's prudent rate cuts, the European Central Bank's accelerated easing, and the Bank of Japan's potential hawkish shift may all trigger significant market volatility. Meanwhile, the uncertainties of geopolitical and trade policies will further complicate market dynamics, urging investors to closely monitor central bank actions.
