Gold Market:
Overnight, gold experienced a significant surge, with prices breaking through the critical $2,400 mark. Short-term trends are looking positive, but long-term trends remain uncertain. The current international political and economic landscape has a considerable impact on gold prices.
According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims for the week ended August 3 were 233,000, down by 17,000, marking the largest decrease in nearly 11 months. This alleviated market concerns about a cooling labor market and strengthened the view that the prospects for a soft economic landing remain intact.
Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are at a critical point. The timing of Iran's potential retaliatory action against Israel has become a focal global concern. Israel is on high alert, and warnings from multiple countries suggest that a conflict in the Middle East could escalate, hovering on the brink of widespread risk.
Technical Analysis: The daily gold chart shows a strong bullish candle, but the direction is still unclear, reinforcing expectations of market volatility. On the 4-hour chart, prices have crossed the long-term moving average but have reached significant resistance levels. Caution is advised as short-term directions can be volatile. Pay attention to the resistance around $2,435.
Crude Oil Market:
Overnight, oil prices saw a slight increase but lacked strong momentum. The recent rise can be viewed as a rational response to Middle Eastern geopolitical risks. However, one should remain cautious about the potential impacts of escalating conflicts in the region.
Global economic prospects directly affect oil demand, with the U.S. being the most critical player as the world's leading economy. There are ongoing market fears that the U.S. economy might enter a recession or even experience a hard landing, especially given a series of previously released underwhelming economic data.
Maersk, regarded as a bellwether of global trade, stated that shipping demand remains strong and there are no signs of a U.S. economic downturn. The CEO emphasized that there are currently no indications that the global economy is heading towards a recession. Additionally, the Baltic Dry Index has not shown significant declines.
Technical Analysis: The daily crude oil chart shows a doji candlestick, indicating indecision at resistance levels. The 1-hour chart indicates overbought conditions with signs of structure completion and weakening upward momentum, suggesting a high likelihood of short-term pullbacks. Monitor the $76.50 level for potential resistance during the day.
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