Logo

[Morning Market] Inflation Returns Above 2%, Gold Rises but Worries Persist

小唐
小唐
08-15

The short-term trend faces resistance at $2480 (triple top) and has retreated. There is a need to be cautious of a significant pullback. There are no signs of a reversal yet, so it is not advisable to blindly go long.

Regarding Gold:

Last night (August 14), the U.S. Department of Labor announced the July CPI year rate at 2.9%, below the expected value of 3.0%, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. The seasonally adjusted CPI month rate for July was 0.2%, in line with expectations. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was recorded at 3.2%, consistent with expectations. The positive inflation report indicates that inflation is indeed receding.

The Federal Reserve remains very cautious about cutting interest rates. Some Fed officials have expressed a strong reluctance to reduce rates. However, Powell previously stated that a rate cut does not necessarily require waiting for inflation to fully return to 2%, but rather considering inflation, employment, and the overall economy. As PPI and CPI data are released consecutively, the probability of an interest rate cut, as expected by CME's "Fed Watch," continues to rise.

Technical Aspect: Gold has been oscillating upward over the past four months after a significant increase, with lows steadily rising. In the short term, it encountered a resistance and fell back at $2480 (Triple Top), warranting caution for a potential deep pullback.

Regarding Crude Oil:

Last week, the U.S. stock market experienced a "Black Monday." Although there has been a significant rebound in recent days, warnings of recession loom in the market. Barry Bannister, the chief equity strategist at the well-known U.S. investment bank Stifel, stated that if the economy continues to slow and eventually enters a recession, a bear market is imminent. He predicts that by October this year, the S&P 500 index will fall to 5000 points, implying a drop of about 8% from its current level.

Last night, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released crude oil inventory data for the week ending August 9, showing an increase of 1.357 million barrels, compared to a previous decrease of 3.728 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 2.2 million barrels; strategic crude inventories recorded 69.4 million barrels, down from 73.6 million barrels previously, both bearish for oil prices.

Technical Aspect: Crude oil continued its pullback yesterday, breaking below the key support of $78. In the short term, there is no signal of a bottom, making it unwise to blindly go long. Watch for the bull-bear dividing line at $77.60 during the day.

[Important Disclaimer: The above content and viewpoints are provided by the third-party partner platform Zhi Sheng for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.]

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.

The End

Wiki

Inflation

Inflation refers to the phenomenon where the purchasing power of a country's (or region's) currency decreases, leading to a general rise in the prices of goods and services. It is reflected in the fact that, over a certain period, the same amount of money can only buy fewer goods and services.

Organization

Related News

Risk Warning

TraderKnows is a financial media platform, with information displayed coming from public networks or uploaded by users. TraderKnows does not endorse any trading platform or variety. We bear no responsibility for any trading disputes or losses arising from the use of this information. Please be aware that displayed information may be delayed, and users should independently verify it to ensure its accuracy.

Logo

Contact Us

Social Media

footer1