Gold: Last night, gold maintained its strong upward momentum, reaching new recent highs and spurring market enthusiasm. The weak U.S. economy and concerning inflation outlook have made gold a hot asset again. In the short term, gold prices are expected to remain promising.
In the United States, initial jobless claims last week were 238,000, slightly above the expected 235,000, indicating overall stability in the labor market. However, U.S. housing starts fell 5.5% in May, hitting a four-year low, decreasing from April's 1.35 million units to 1.28 million units, suggesting a potential cooling of the U.S. economy.
The market believes that to avoid an economic recession, the Federal Reserve should start cutting interest rates soon. Lower interest rates help reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold but may also trigger an inflation rebound. The market considers the 2% inflation target difficult to achieve.
Technical Analysis: Gold's daily chart shows a large bullish candlestick, but signs of overbought conditions are apparent. The 4-hour cycle structure is relatively complete and near previous price highs, suggesting the need for a short-term pullback. Caution is advised in chasing gains intraday, with attention to the resistance at the $2373 level.
Crude Oil: Oil prices saw a slight dip overnight but regained lost ground, maintaining a strong pattern. Rising cyclical consumption demand and increased energy demand due to extreme weather have lifted market expectations for oil prices, which are promising in the short term.
For the week ending June 14, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories fell by 2.547 million barrels, as U.S. crude demand rose beyond seasonal norms. Traffic is expected to increase with the start of the summer travel season. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 1.3 million barrels per day shortage in the crude oil supply market in the third quarter of this year.
July to October is the peak season for oil consumption, and extreme heat often leads to increased energy demand. Multiple regions worldwide are facing heatwave challenges, causing a surge in global energy demand. However, OPEC+ continues to cut production, highlighting the cyclical energy supply-demand imbalance, boosting market enthusiasm for rising oil prices.
Technical Analysis: The daily oil chart shows a small bearish candlestick, but the price remains above long-term moving averages, providing strong support. The 1-hour cycle indicates the potential completion of a structure, with weakening upward momentum and the possibility of a short-term pullback. Focus on the resistance at the $81.60 level in the short term.
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