Regarding Gold:
Gold performance overnight was lukewarm, with limited short-term opportunities. This week, three major central banks will hold policy meetings, and the market is likely to remain cautious until clear signals emerge.
This week, the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England will announce their interest rate decisions. However, the signals from their economic data are different, even contradictory, increasing the market's difficulty in making judgments. Waiting for the results of these central bank meetings might be the best strategy.
Japanese inflation continues to rise, increasing the likelihood of tightening monetary policy and the expectation of intervention. The "FedWatch" tool indicates a 96% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged, with the market more focused on whether guidance for a September rate cut will be provided. The UK is facing its first rate cut, with the bankruptcy crisis making a low-interest-rate environment more necessary.
Technical Analysis: Gold's daily chart shows a small bearish candle, wrapping the previous trading day, but the support from long-term moving averages below is still not to be ignored. The 4-hour cycle shows a false breakout of the upper high, with a high probability of new lows within the day. The pressure at the $2386 level can be monitored.
Regarding Crude Oil:
Overnight oil prices surged but failed to hold, facing considerable short-term downward pressure. However, the long-term trend shows signs of being oversold, warning against an overly pessimistic view. A turnaround may follow once short-term bearish forces are exhausted.
Last week, a football field in the Golan Heights occupied by Israel was hit by rockets, causing the largest casualties in the Israeli-controlled area since the Palestinian-Israeli conflict began. Following the event, Israel responded strongly. The market believes that if Israel takes large-scale military action, this could force countries like the U.S. and Iran into the Middle East conflict, potentially leading to an escalation.
If the Middle East conflict escalates, there could be a negative impact on oil production and sales from the region. The market is already jittery, and oil prices could see a significant increase. The Middle East situation has always been a crucial potential factor for rising oil prices.
Technical Analysis: The daily oil chart shows a large bearish candle, but prices are oversold, so a rebound from low levels should be watched. The 1-hour cycle shows a breakdown of the range, with effective testing of upper pressure. There is a high probability of new lows within the day, but the space may be limited. Monitor the $76.20 level for pressure within the day.
