Financial Calendar
May 09 (Wednesday) Data and Financial Events (Beijing Time)
07:50 Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions from April meeting
10:00 China's April Trade Balance
19:00 Bank of England announces interest rate decision and meeting minutes
19:30 Bank of England Governor Bailey holds a press conference
20:30 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 4
22:30 U.S. EIA natural gas storage for the week ending May 3
May 10
02:00 Federal Reserve's Daly participates in a fireside chat
Market Review
The market was relatively quiet on Wednesday, primarily after the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates, followed by the Swedish Central Bank's first rate cut in eight years, signaling the beginning of a rate cut phase among developed countries. European Central Bank's Wunsch sees a path to cutting rates this year, with space for a 50 basis point reduction, but the exact timing will be dependent on data; committee member Holzmann believes there is no reason to lower rates too quickly or too much. Federal Reserve officials mostly continued with hawkish statements. The US Dollar Index fluctuated around 105.5 throughout the day, eventually closing at 105.51.
Today's Focus
US Dollar Index: The market experienced overall fluctuations yesterday, with resistance remaining unchanged at the 105.7-105.8 area. Short-term attention is on the situation after a rise. The support at the 105 line remains unchanged, with possibilities for further buying if the market stabilizes and retraces.
EUR/USD: Short-term support is at the 1.073 line, with strong support in the 1.068 area. If the short-term retracement does not break, watch for a second upward movement. The resistance remains unchanged at 1.078-1.08, with opportunities for selling if the test fails.
GBP/USD: Ahead of today's Bank of England interest rate decision, the short-term market situation has support at the 1.246-1.248 area. Pay attention to the reaction in this area during the day. Continue selling on a direct downward move, but if there is a bounce upwards, watch the reaction at the 1.258-1.26 resistance area.
USD/JPY: After breaking through the 155 area, the market saw a pullback and then continued the upward price movement. The current short-term resistance is at the 156.3 line, with strong resistance at the 158 area. In the process of holding long positions, pay attention to the situation at the resistance areas. Extremely cautious of selling in a major bullish phase.
AUD/USD: The short-term market is within the previous support and resistance switching area, with today's focus on the price movement within the 0.656-0.658 area. If the market breaks below this area, then a pullback presents an opportunity to enter short positions, if not, then consider buying after a reversal signal appears.
USD/CAD: The market saw an adjustment at the previous downward move’s 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The short-term upper resistance at 1.376-1.378 is valid, with opportunities for a pullback if it does not break through significantly. Support is at 1.368 and the 1.36 level, with potential buying opportunities on a secondary pullback.
Crude Oil: Prices rebounded after reaching an AB=CD pattern in conjunction with support from the left side lows. The short-term price movement is still in focus for upward rebound strength. Resistance is at the previous top and bottom reversal area around 81, with opportunities for selling if the price does not break upwards.
Gold: Short-term market fluctuations continue, with the upper resistance at 2330 unchanged. If the short-term price does not effectively break above, consider selling as it approaches resistance. Support is at 2290, with potential for short buying if the drop does not break below, keeping a cautious approach to the fluctuating market.
S&P Index: A breakout followed by a pullback occurred in the short term, with continued focus on the 5120-5140 support area below. With significant upper resistance, trading neither long nor short is advisable without a deeper pullback. Maintain a watchful stance in the short term.
Bitcoin: The price stabilized and rebounded after nearing 61000 again, with the 59000-61000 support range still relevant. In the current fluctuating downward trend, be cautious with buying within the support area, considering taking profits on previous short positions and waiting for a rebound to continue selling at resistance.
