Bitcoin briefly surged past $75,000 before quickly retreating, showing characteristics driven by derivatives, with no signal of a true bull market entry yet.
Derivative-driven rise
Data shows Bitcoin touched a high of $75,800, breaking through a long-term resistance zone, but failing to hold firmly. The core momentum of this surge came from structural changes in the options market, rather than an increase in spot demand.
10x Research noted that a large number of deep out-of-the-money put options established earlier in February were closed as expiration approached, reducing downward hedging pressure. Meanwhile, market makers were compelled to buy BTC for risk hedging, creating a short-term upward effect.
Lack of new bullish capital
The key issue is that this rise was not accompanied by a large-scale purchase of call options. Typically, an increase in call option demand is seen as an important signal of institutional funds building long positions.
Currently, the market is more driven by "de-hedging" rather than "active buying," which also explains the rapid pullback in prices after the breakthrough.
Technical resistance remains effective
The $74,400 level has shifted from historical support to current key resistance. Bitcoin's failure to hold this position effectively reinforces the technical significance of this range.
The market structure indicates that this level remains an important psychological boundary for traders, which may continue to limit short-term upward movement.
Macro events become key variables
The market is turning its focus to the upcoming US PPI data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The market expects month-on-month PPI growth in February to slow to 0.3%, but core inflation remains around 3.4%.
If expectations of "higher for longer" rates strengthen, it may suppress risk asset performance; conversely, it could provide further upward momentum for Bitcoin.
