MSCI is changing the eligibility rules for its Global Investable Market Indexes, putting Strategy at risk of losing index membership. The changes take effect after the market close on November 30, with the final list of affected companies due on November 11. Beyond potential selling by index-tracking funds, investors are watching whether pressure on Strategy’s share-price premium to its bitcoin holdings could make it harder for the company to raise money by issuing common stock.
MSCI shifts from a digital-asset threshold to business activity
MSCI announced the revised methodology on October 15. It will first assess whether a company has substantial operating assets. Companies that do not pass that screen will then face five financial-ratio tests; failing at least four would make them ineligible. For current index constituents, removal requires failing the eligibility screen in both of the most recent annual reporting periods. MSCI may also consider the latest interim filings.
The framework replaces a temporary restriction aimed at companies with digital assets equal to at least 50% of total assets. MSCI abandoned an earlier proposal to exclude such companies outright in January, then broadened its review to businesses whose activities resemble those of investment vehicles. Strategy, Japan’s Metaplanet and uranium investment company Yellow Cake were identified as potential exclusions in an MSCI simulation. SharpLink, whose main reserve asset is ether, also appeared on a proposed watchlist.
Strategy chairman Michael Saylor and other company executives have opposed treating bitcoin-reserve companies differently. In a September submission to MSCI, the company argued that excluding them would compromise index providers’ neutrality and said there was no sound basis for distinguishing operating businesses from investment vehicles in this way.
MSTR’s decline deepens as investors debate potential selling
A chart compiled by market commentator Mark Harvey using Yahoo Finance daily closing prices showed MSTR down about 68.7% from its range high. The stock had at one point fallen more than 80% earlier in 2026, after recording a maximum decline of 89.3%. Harvey described the lower valuation as a potential buying opportunity for investors with a long-term bullish view of Strategy’s bitcoin exposure; that is his view, not a market consensus.
Market participants disagree over how much selling an index change could trigger. Bitcoin analyst Adrian Morris said MSTR’s high trading activity could allow index-related sales to be absorbed through routine trading and scheduled portfolio rebalancing. The figures he cited put Strategy’s dollar trading volume at about $565.25 billion so far this year, averaging roughly $2.91 billion a day and $13.79 billion a week. Trading volume for the week ended October 9 was $15.29 billion.
At those levels, JPMorgan’s estimated $2.8 billion of potential selling would equal about 96% of an average day’s trading, 18.3% of the previous week’s volume and 0.5% of year-to-date volume. Morris said index rebalancing alone might not create a severe liquidity problem. The actual impact would still depend on buying during the rebalance and on whether investors adjust positions ahead of a formal removal.
In its September submission to MSCI, Strategy estimated that funds tracking MSCI indexes held about 13 million MSTR shares. That represented 3.1% of the company’s basic shares outstanding and about 60% of its average daily trading volume over the previous 30 trading days. The potential adjustment therefore needs to be considered alongside trading activity and actual changes in holdings, rather than inferred from the headline dollar estimate alone.
A narrower premium could constrain bitcoin funding
Coin Bureau CEO Nic Puckrin pointed to a further risk: Strategy’s ability to raise funds for future bitcoin purchases. If sustained selling narrows MSTR’s premium to the net value of the bitcoin it holds, issuing common stock on favorable terms could become more difficult.
Strategy has previously issued common stock when its shares traded above the net value of its bitcoin holdings, using the proceeds to buy more bitcoin. The premium helped reduce the relative cost of raising equity to acquire assets and supported the company’s accumulation strategy. If it remains lower for an extended period, common-stock issuance could become less attractive, leaving the company to rely more on preferred stock, debt or existing liquidity.
The company disclosed that it bought just 250 bitcoin for $21.5 million in the week ended October 11, funded mainly by $21 million raised through common-stock sales. In the same week, it spent $192.4 million repurchasing STRC preferred stock, far more than it spent on bitcoin purchases.
After those transactions, Strategy held 848,250 bitcoin, acquired at a cumulative cost of about $64 billion. The company also reported a $4.88 billion dollar reserve and an additional $640.5 million in cash available for broader treasury management. MSCI is due to publish its final index changes on November 11; if Strategy is removed, index-tracking funds will implement the adjustment at the November 30 market close.