On Friday (April 25), during the Asian session early morning, spot gold showed a spike and decline trend. By 07:52, the gold price had reached a high of $3,370.58 per ounce, then fell back to around $3,350 for consolidation. After experiencing a nearly 3% plummet on Wednesday, gold rebounded strongly on Thursday with a one-day increase of 1.83%, finally closing at $3,348.50. This rebound was primarily driven by a weak dollar and market bargain-hunting.
Notably, on Tuesday, gold prices once surged to a historical high of $3,500, mainly due to market panic triggered by Trump's threat to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. However, on Wednesday, Trump's stance shifted; he retracted the dismissal threat and signaled a willingness to ease trade tensions, causing gold prices to recede. Subsequently, a major Asian power retaliated strongly, demanding the U.S. remove all tariffs and clarified that no trade negotiations were underway, reigniting market risk aversion.
The current gold market is facing a battle between bulls and bears, with the trade war situating in a "Rashomon" state. On Thursday, the Asian power issued a stern statement, asserting that the U.S. should immediately lift all unilateral tariffs if genuinely seeking a resolution, contrasting starkly with the White House's recent "negotiation signals," making trade prospects even more uncertain.
As a result of this situation, the dollar index fell 0.61% to 99.29 on Thursday, while gold received strong safe-haven buying support. Market analysts warn that the significant gap between the U.S. and China's trade positions will continue to impact market trends. Although Trump's softened stance temporarily strengthened the dollar, it showed weakness again on Thursday. Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market continued its upward trend, with the three major indices posting substantial gains, led by technology stocks as the S&P 500 rose by 2.03%.
Regarding the Federal Reserve, economic data showed mixed results. Although durable goods orders exceeded expectations, initial jobless claims stagnated. Fed officials are maintaining a wait-and-see approach towards current policies. Board member Waller indicated that at least until July would be necessary to assess the impact of tariff policies. Waller stated in an interview that monetary policy would not change immediately and that a better assessment of the effects of tariff policies could only be made after the summer. Cleveland Fed President Harker emphasized the need for policy patience amidst high uncertainty but did not rule out the possibility of policy adjustments in June.
Looking ahead, the gold market is likely to enter a high-level consolidation phase. The market currently exhibits a "multi-party contention" situation: firstly, trade war uncertainty—if the U.S. insists on imposing new tariffs, gold prices could again test the $3,500 mark; secondly, uncertainty in Federal Reserve policy—with the May meeting potentially signaling rate cuts being a crucial turning point; finally, the dollar trend—if economic data continues to worsen, the dollar index could fall below the 99 level.
For investors, short-term strategies can focus on the $3,250-$3,400 range for swing opportunities, while long-term investors might consider a strategy of phased buying on retracements. Overall, the volatility in the gold market may intensify further, requiring investors to respond more flexibly to market changes.
On this trading day, the market will continue to focus on the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings attended by global financial leaders, while also keeping an eye on international trade developments and geopolitical news.
