The Dollar Rebound Pressures Gold Prices, Gold Slightly Retreats in Early Trading
In early Asian trading on Monday, gold prices slightly declined, with spot gold trading around $3,300 per ounce. Previously, the U.S. released May's non-farm payroll data, which significantly exceeded market expectations, propelling the dollar upwards and reducing the potential for gold, priced in dollars, to rise.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, surpassing the expected 130,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. Additionally, the average hourly earnings annual rate reached 3.9%, also above prior market estimates. Although the April non-farm increase was revised down from 177,000 to 147,000, overall employment performance remains strong.
Employment Data Strengthens "Hold Steady" Expectation, Fed Policy Direction Becomes Clearer
A strategist from a U.S. investment institution noted, "This set of strong data enhances the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in the next two meetings." Market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed this year have cooled, supporting the dollar, which becomes the main pressure source for short-term gold movements.
Amid rising probabilities of rate stability, the attraction of gold as a non-yielding asset decreases, with investors shifting to a wait-and-see mode, awaiting new directional signals.
Trade Talks Approaching, Risk Aversion May Rise Again
Although gold prices are currently under pressure, the market's attention has turned to the U.S.-China trade talks set to take place later Monday in London. It is reported that former U.S. President Trump revealed that the talks will focus on economic and tariff issues, representing the first direct dialogue between the two parties amid recent tensions.
A macro research analyst stated, "Given the longstanding uncertainty in trade relations, any 'hawkish' statements could swiftly trigger safe haven buying, pushing up short-term gold prices."
Gold Maintains a Volatile Pattern, Direction Awaits Confirmation
From a technical perspective, gold (XAU/USD) is currently maintaining a position at the upper range of the daily fluctuation zone, with prices oscillating around $3,300 and nearing the Bollinger mid-band, with no clear market breakthrough yet.
In terms of technical indicators, the MACD presents a slight downward cross pattern, with momentum leaning slight bearish but still neutral; meanwhile, RSI stays above 50, indicating bears have not yet fully taken control. Overall, market sentiment remains cautious.
If gold prices manage to break through the $3,330 resistance level effectively, they may explore the $3,355 region; conversely, if they drop below the $3,285 support, there is a possibility of further decline towards the key technical support level of $3,250.
Short-term Market Still Driven by News
Analysts believe the current gold market lacks strong directional driving factors, with short-term trends continuing to be influenced by macroeconomic data and changes in international situations. As critical trade negotiations are about to take place, investors should closely monitor related statements and market reactions to respond to potential volatility risks.
