As the 2024 U.S. elections approach, the market's expectation of a possible Trump victory is rising, driving the dollar to strengthen continuously. Analysts generally believe that if Trump ultimately wins, the dollar may rise further in the coming weeks. This trend is already reflected in the volatility of the foreign exchange markets, with recent attention particularly focused on the performance of the dollar against major currencies like the euro and the pound.
Currently, the pound to dollar exchange rate has fallen below the 1.30 barrier, with the latest trading around 1.2974. This indicates the market is preparing in advance for the final outcome of the U.S. election. Although polls show the election competition is intense, the odds in betting markets are also attracting attention. According to relevant statistics, betting odds have successfully predicted 77% of U.S. presidential election outcomes over the past 35 years.
Deutsche Bank analysis points out that market expectations for a so-called "red wave" are rising, suggesting that the Republican Party may control both Congress and the White House. This outcome could strongly boost the dollar. The bank suggests that the market trend post-Trump victory may resemble the 2016 election, during which the dollar rate rose significantly after his win. If history repeats, the dollar may see a strong rebound in the coming weeks. Conversely, if Democratic candidate Harris wins, the market expects the dollar's rise might recede, prompting a rebound of the euro and the pound against the dollar.
Barclays' forex model predicts that if Trump wins, the pound to dollar might drop to 1.23, while the euro to dollar target could fall to 1.03. However, if Harris wins, the pound to dollar might rebound to 1.33, and the euro to dollar could rise to around 1.11.
Notably, analysts believe that the impact of the election outcome on the forex market is not limited to the election day; the market's direction in the following weeks will depend on the final political landscape and the implementation of related policies. Market participants should closely monitor future poll changes and election results to make timely adjustments and respond to forex market fluctuations.
