- UBS Global Wealth Management's latest report indicates that by 2026, the scale of U.S. stock issuance, calculated in absolute dollar terms, will reach a historic high, ending the issuance lull since 2021, with both new listings and secondary offerings showing strong recovery momentum.
- Forecast data shows that by 2026, U.S. initial public offerings will raise between $200 billion and $350 billion, while secondary offerings by already listed companies may exceed $400 billion, both setting new historical records.
- Despite the significant surge in issuance scale, UBS believes this will not pose an upward resistance to the broader stock market, as the $1.2 trillion in corporate stock buybacks over the past 12 months is expected to effectively offset supply pressure.
A Historic Surge in Supply
According to a deep report released by UBS Global Wealth Management on June 17, after a prolonged fundraising drought, the U.S. capital market is experiencing an unprecedented wave of stock issuance. The bank expects U.S. initial public offerings in 2026 to rise to between $200 billion and $350 billion, directly setting a new historical high. Meanwhile, the secondary offering fundraising scale of already listed companies is also expected to surpass the $400 billion mark. This explosive growth in capital supply is mainly attributed to the resilience of macroeconomic data and the benchmark effect of tech giants. For example, the latest June business index released by the Philadelphia Fed reached 10.3, higher than the market expectation of 10, injecting fundamental confidence into the market.
Concentration of Star Tech Unicorns Going Public
The core momentum driving this primary market supply peak comes from the listing processes of super tech companies. Space Exploration Technologies Corporation last week initiated this wave of issuance with a record scale, with its market valuation reaching approximately $1.8 trillion. Following closely are leading companies in the artificial intelligence field, Anthropic and OpenAI, both of which have secretly filed for listing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and are expected to officially enter the capital market later this year. The concentrated listing of these high-valuation representative companies makes 2026 likely to be the busiest and most significant fundraising cycle in recent years.
Trillion-Dollar Buybacks Hedge Liquidity Pressure
Despite the extremely large total stock issuance, market analysts generally believe that its impact on the overall liquidity of the secondary market is relatively controllable. UBS strategists point out that if the total market value of approximately $72 trillion of all U.S. listed companies is used as a reference, the current issuance scale is still roughly in line with the long-term average level in proportion, far below the peaks of the 1990s and the global financial crisis period. More importantly, over the past 12 months, U.S. companies have implemented up to $1.2 trillion in stock buybacks. UBS expects that this year, the total amount of corporate stock buybacks will still slightly exceed their total issuance, thus providing key support for the U.S. stock market in terms of capital supply and demand.
Asset Allocation Tilts Towards Quality Targets
In terms of global macro asset linkage, as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slightly fell to about 4.45%, and the Nasdaq 100 index futures recorded a gain of over 1.5%, overall market risk appetite remains relatively high. However, UBS issued a forward-looking compliance warning to investors in the report. Strategists emphasize that as the issuance scale expands, all market parties should pay close attention to the financial and business quality of newly listed companies. If the future IPO market is dominated by low-quality issuers, the systemic risk of the entire stock market may rise accordingly. If core inflation or macro interest rates are re-evaluated, the pricing logic for new stocks will also face adjustments.
