- Amundi, Europe's largest asset management company, stated that the rise in Asian tech stocks driven by artificial intelligence has fundamental support. The current valuations remain reasonable compared to high profit expectations and have not yet entered an asset bubble stage.
- Global AI infrastructure investment is expected to reach $5 trillion by 2030, with South Korea and Taiwan's semiconductor supply chains continuing to benefit from the capital expenditure spillover of U.S. mega cloud service providers.
- The Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy path has become a core external variable. If persistent core inflation in the U.S. leads to higher U.S. Treasury yields, the financing costs of high-valuation growth stocks and the AI supply chain will face pressure risks.
Profit Expectations Support Valuations of Asian Semiconductor Supply Chain
Amundi manages approximately 2.4 trillion euros (about $2.8 trillion) in assets. Alessia Berardi, its global emerging markets strategy director, stated that although leading semiconductor companies in South Korea and Taiwan have recently recorded significant gains, the core logic of this trend lies in the strong expectation of future profit growth. Compared to the expected earnings performance of these companies, the current valuation levels remain within a reasonable range and do not necessarily indicate an asset bubble.
$5 Trillion Investment Cycle Spills Over to Hardware Sector
According to industry forecasts, global capital expenditure on generative artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and data center computing power infrastructure is expected to cumulatively reach $5 trillion by 2030. This long-term investment expansion has provided significant growth opportunities for Asian network and electronic component suppliers that provide hardware support. Companies like South Korea's Samsung Electronics (005930:KS) and SK Hynix (000660:KS), deeply involved in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced packaging technology, have become indispensable components of the global AI supply chain.
South Korea's Kospi Index Cumulative Gain Approaches 100%
In this trend driven by hardware demand, the performance of the South Korean stock market has been particularly outstanding. Although the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (Kospi) experienced a nearly 7% correction in a recent trading day, the cumulative gain for the year is still close to 100%. Meanwhile, the main emerging market stock benchmark index has risen by about 25% overall this year, with the technology sector contributing the main momentum, indicating that AI trading has spread widely from U.S. tech giants to the Asian hardware supply chain and emerging markets.
U.S. Interest Rate Environment and Treasury Yields as Key Variables
Amundi pointed out that the subsequent upward momentum of Asian tech stocks will heavily depend on the capital expenditure pace of large U.S. tech companies. If the Fed extends the high-interest rate period to combat stubborn inflation pressure, or if the market reprices rate hikes, the continued rise in U.S. Treasury yields will directly increase corporate borrowing costs. This could not only suppress the overall valuation of high-valuation growth stocks but also force mega cloud service providers to reassess their capital project investment thresholds, thereby having a ripple effect on the order demand of the Asian supply chain.
Emerging Market Asset Allocation Shows Divergent Resilience
Against the backdrop of intertwined macro risks, besides the Asian stock market with technological dividends, Latin American local currency bonds and some emerging European assets also show strong policy buffer space. As some emerging economies improve in fiscal conditions and external buffers, the competition between emerging market assets and developed market assets is intensifying. If global geopolitical and commodity price fluctuations persist, assets of economies with sufficient policy tools will demonstrate higher attractiveness to global capital.
