- Goldman Sachs (GS:US) has significantly raised its copper price forecast for the end of 2026 to $13,735 per ton, approximately 10.2% higher than the previous forecast of $12,465, mainly driven by slower-than-expected global supply growth and higher-than-expected U.S. import growth.
- The bank also raised its 2027 average copper price forecast from $12,150 per ton to $13,800, reflecting Wall Street's major investment banks' structurally bullish stance on the medium to long-term supply-demand relationship of base metals.
- The supply-demand tension in markets outside the United States exceeded previous expectations, and strong domestic import demand in the U.S. is accelerating the flow to existing global metal inventories, exacerbating the premium performance in the spot market.
Stagnation in Supply Growth Deepens Market Gap
Global copper mine production faces multiple obstacles in the first half of 2026, as Goldman Sachs clearly pointed out in its latest research report. The commissioning progress and capacity utilization rates of major production areas have not met previous expectations. Constrained by the slowdown in refining capacity growth and the decline in grades of some traditional mines, the overall supply growth of refined copper globally is significantly weaker than the historical average. This marginal tightening on the supply side has become a core driving factor prompting investment banks to reassess commodity pricing models. If geopolitical disturbances or environmental reviews further tighten, the global supply gap may continue to widen in the second half of the year.
Surge in U.S. Import Demand Absorbs Global Inventory
On the consumption side, the U.S. market's performance has exceeded the general expectations of commodity traders. Due to the revival of domestic manufacturing and the strong demand for high-conductivity metals driven by grid upgrades and transformations, U.S. copper imports on the international market have surged. This trend not only directly depletes the physical inventories of major North American exchanges but also attracts spot flows from Europe and Asia through arbitrage windows. Goldman Sachs analysis indicates that the sustained high level of U.S. imports effectively acts as a reservoir effect, draining existing visible global inventories, thereby pushing international copper prices to a higher equilibrium level.
Tighter-than-Expected Supply-Demand in Overseas Markets
Outside the U.S., the supply-demand balance sheets of some core consumption economies in Europe and Asia also exhibit tight balance characteristics. The market previously expected that overseas markets outside the U.S. and Europe might experience supply surpluses due to macroeconomic fluctuations, but actual data shows that the rigid consumption of copper driven by green energy transitions and electrification infrastructure construction has maintained high resilience. Spot market premiums continue to rise, and deliverable inventories at major exchanges like the London Metal Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange remain at historically low levels, further confirming the general tightness in supply-demand relationships.
Reshaping of Forward Price Curve and Pricing Logic
With the simultaneous upward revision of the end-2026 and full-year 2027 average price forecasts, the forward curve of the copper futures market is undergoing structural reshaping. Goldman Sachs raised its 2027 average copper price forecast to $13,800 per ton, indicating its belief that the current supply-demand mismatch is not a short-term phenomenon but a systemic phenomenon with medium to long-term sustainability. Market analysts point out that if major central banks release liquidity in future monetary policy cycles, or if global manufacturing PMIs return to expansion territory, the financial and commodity attributes of the commodity market may resonate, potentially accelerating the asset reshaping process of copper prices.
