Mike Selig, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated in Washington on Tuesday that regulators are close to introducing policy guidance that will allow cryptocurrency perpetual futures to operate compliantly within the United States, expected to be announced in "about a month."
Perpetual futures are derivative contracts with no expiry date, often accompanied by leverage mechanisms. Over the past few years, this product form has primarily developed in offshore markets. Industry data shows that perpetual contracts account for over 70% of the trading volume in crypto derivatives on major global exchanges, while the U.S. domestic market share is less than 15%. Selig noted that the regulatory stance during the previous administration led to related businesses and liquidity moving offshore, forming a noticeable liquidity premium.
Market analysts believe that if the U.S. clarifies the regulatory path, some institutional funds may return to the domestic market, driving the valuation recovery of trading platforms. The forward price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) of some crypto-related listed companies have a discount of about 20% to 30% compared to traditional futures brokers, reflecting risk compensation due to policy uncertainty.
SEC and CFTC advance "Project Crypto"
On the same day, Selig and Paul Atkins, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), attended an event together, emphasizing cooperation in regulating digital assets under the "Project Crypto" framework.
Selig stated that the CFTC is exploring an "innovation exceptions" mechanism to provide limited regulatory space for experimental digital asset businesses and will define the regulatory approach for decentralized finance (DeFi) developers. People close to regulators say this initiative aims to reduce the expected gap caused by regulatory uncertainty.
Atkins noted that although regulators can advance policy through interpretive guidance, "we do need certainty at the statutory level." Two years ago, the U.S. Supreme Court weakened the advantage of federal agencies in judicial interpretation, making administrative guidance more susceptible to challenges in litigation.
Forecast market regulatory standards to be clarified
Selig also revealed that the forecast market will receive clear guidance soon and will gradually enter a more complete rule-making process. Related companies include Polymarket and Kalshi, whose sports-related contract businesses are facing jurisdictional disputes with some state gaming regulators.
Selig stated that state-level gaming regulation and federal derivatives regulation "can coexist," but the CFTC will maintain its dominant position in the event contract market. Market participants believe that clarifying regulatory standards helps reduce legal risk premiums, but may also increase margin requirements and information disclosure standards, imposing constraints on some high-leverage trades.
Legislation process remains a key variable
The U.S. Senate is still advancing the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which aims to delineate the responsibilities of the CFTC and SEC in the digital asset field. The bill is currently in a multi-party negotiation stage, involving industry, banking systems, and bipartisan coordination. With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, the legislative time window is narrowing, and the probability of passage faces marginal decline.
Industry insiders point out that if perpetual futures achieve compliant implementation in the U.S., the structure of the derivatives market may see marginal improvement. Domestic trading volume has a certain foundation for achieving double-digit growth in the next 12 months. However, policy stability still depends on the formal rule-making process and the level of congressional authorization.
In the current context of parallel regulatory and legislative tracks, the institutional framework of the U.S. digital asset market is being reshaped. Whether market liquidity can continuously return still awaits validation by policy details and the macro liquidity environment.
