In terms of gold:
Last night (July 9), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell submitted his monetary policy testimony to the U.S. Senate. He indicated that recent inflation data shows some modest further progress, and more positive data would increase confidence that inflation is consistently progressing toward the 2% target.
He also mentioned that reducing policy constraints too soon or too much could impede progress on inflation, but it is necessary to also consider changes in economic activity and employment.
According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, there is a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September. This probability is essentially consistent with the probability after the non-farm payroll data was released. Attention should be focused on the U.S. June CPI data tomorrow.
Technical analysis: After falling on Monday (July 8), gold is maintaining a narrow range fluctuation (2350-2368 USD). In the short term, it is expected to continue this range fluctuation, with a breakthrough possibly needing the push of tomorrow night's data.
In terms of oil:
The API crude oil inventory data for the week ending July 5, released early in the morning, recorded a decrease of 1.923 million barrels, compared to a previous decrease of 9.163 million barrels and an expected decrease of 250,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories also recorded an unexpected decline, which is bullish for oil prices.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve's attitude towards monetary policy has seen slight changes. ING stated that if the Fed can avoid a recession and the data allows, it is expected that from September, the Fed will shift its monetary policy from "restrictive" to "slightly less restrictive." Clearer signals may be released at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting at the end of August.
Technical analysis: Crude oil has continued to decline slowly since last Friday (July 5), with no signs of stopping the fall in the short term. During the day, the key level to watch above is 82.50 USD; if it breaks above this level, it might head towards 84 USD. On the downside, watch the support around 80 USD.
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