On April 9, 2025, the US agricultural futures market witnessed a full rebound. Driven by Trump's tariff adjustments and other macroeconomic factors, soybean futures prices rose by 2%, marking the largest single-day increase since 2020. On that day, the main SK25 soybean futures contract at CBOT closed at $10.12 3/4 per bushel. Corn and wheat also ended higher by 5 cents and 2 1/4 cents respectively. Market sentiment was mainly influenced by disruptions in US domestic river transportation, adjustments in Argentine crop output, and Trump's tariff pronouncements.
The strong rebound in soybean futures was propelled not only by the short-term effects of Trump's tariff adjustments but also by disruptions in Midwest river transportation. Notably, heavy rain in the southern corn belt of the US caused the Ohio River to swell significantly, interrupting commercial navigation on key waterways, which supported the prices of soybean on the spot market. The soybean basis offer in the US Gulf region continued to strengthen, with CIF Gulf April shipment soybean barge basis rising by 4 cents to 74 cents per bushel. Meanwhile, Argentina's 2024/25 soybean output estimate was lowered by 1 million tons, further heightening concerns about tight supply.
Despite the export market's relatively flat performance, the USDA confirmed a transaction of 198,000 tons of soybeans. The absence of Chinese buyers still leaves short-term demand highly uncertain. Technically, soybean futures face short-term resistance near $10.30 per bushel. Considering the upcoming release of the USDA supply and demand report, the market widely anticipates an upward adjustment in US soybean ending stocks, which may limit further short-term price increases.
Corn futures also rose on the day, with the main CK25 contract increasing by 5 cents, closing at $4.74 per bushel. Although funds had a net purchase of 7,500 corn contracts, a long-term bearish sentiment still prevails in the market. Corn basis in the Midwest is strong, but rising supply pressure from South America, with Argentina's corn output estimate significantly raised to 48.5 million tons, has dampened the price increase potential for corn.
Wheat futures saw a widespread increase, particularly with KC hard red winter wheat futures rising by 6.5 cents, closing at $5.61 1/2 per bushel. Ongoing drought conditions in the US Plains have raised concerns over wheat output, while global procurement activity remains robust, with demand from countries like Algeria, Jordan, and Syria supporting the market. However, the strong export competitiveness of Black Sea region wheat, with Russian wheat pricing still cheaper than US wheat, has limited the upside for CBOT wheat futures.
Soybean meal and oil markets also experienced fluctuations. Soybean meal futures continued to rise, with the main SMK25 contract ending $3.2 higher, while soybean oil futures underperformed. Despite a 4.65% rise in crude oil prices, soybean oil prices showed limited gains, reflecting market concerns over biofuel demand.
In the short term, market focus will shift to the forthcoming USDA supply and demand report, with analysts generally expecting an increase in US soybean ending stocks. If corn stocks approach or exceed 1.605 billion bushels, it might test recent lows again. The evolving implications of Trump's tariff policy, especially any further tariffs on China, need close monitoring, which could trigger a new round of risk-off trading. However, the agricultural market could demonstrate relative resilience to downturns, particularly for varieties supported by tight spot supplies.
