Gold:
Yesterday (June 18), New York Fed President Williams stated that the U.S. economy is moving in the right direction. As inflationary pressures ease, interest rates will be gradually lowered in the coming years, but he declined to predict when the Fed will start to cut rates. He also reiterated that the Fed's primary task is to ensure inflation returns to 2%.
Fed's Barkin mentioned that since last year, data has been fluctuating and policy outlook remains uncertain. He suggested that it is reasonable to lower rates once and then keep them unchanged, maintaining an open-minded approach.
Overall, the Fed remains cautious on the issue of rate cuts, appearing more "hawkish" than market expectations, dampening rate cut expectations, which is unfavorable for gold.
Technical Analysis: Gold has been oscillating in the $2295-$2341 range for over a week. This "temporary balance" is expected to break in the next two days. A breakthrough above $2341 will target the $2360 level; a break below $2300 will target the $2280 level.
Crude Oil:
Following this month's OPEC+ meeting, oil prices plummeted due to market expectations that OPEC+ will increase production in the future. However, as OPEC+ reassured that they would delay or cancel plans to increase production starting from the fourth quarter of this year depending on market conditions, oil prices reversed sharply in a V-shape and continued to rise.
Additionally, OPEC and EIA's monthly reports both raised their global oil demand forecasts for this year, boosting market confidence. Meanwhile, investors remain worried about a broader war outbreak in the Middle East. The Israeli military reported that Hezbollah in Lebanon intensified cross-border fire into Israel, which could lead to a serious escalation of conflict.
Technical Analysis: Crude oil prices have been rising continuously for the past two weeks, breaking through last month’s oscillation range and are likely to maintain the uptrend. Intra-day support is seen at $80.60, with resistance targeted at $82.50.
Important Disclaimer: The above content and views are provided by a third-party partner platform, ZhiSheng, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk.
