In 2024, Russia's economy performed strongly, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growing by 4.1%, reaching a historic high of 200 trillion rubles. Russian Prime Minister Mishustin noted in his report that although export volumes declined, the output of the processing industry exceeded expectations, increasing by 8.5%. Several sectors, including mechanical manufacturing, saw growth rates between 10% and 20%. Furthermore, the real income of residents increased by 8.4%, real wages grew by 8.7%, and the domestic unemployment rate remained low at 2.3%. Putin expressed satisfaction with the economic achievements of 2024 and is optimistic about economic development in 2025, expecting balanced growth. However, Mishustin also cautioned that due to the effects of inflation, Russia's economic growth rate in 2025 might slow down.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the employment report for January 2025, showing that non-farm employment increased by only 143,000, well below market expectations of 175,000. This figure marked the lowest level in three months. Although the U.S. unemployment rate fell to a new low of 4%, overall job growth fell short of market forecasts. The report also noted significant upward revisions for U.S. non-farm employment in November and December last year, from 212,000 and 256,000 to 261,000 and 307,000 respectively, making the overall employment data look relatively positive.
However, despite the smaller-than-expected job growth in January, the market has not raised its expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. The U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in February dropped to 67.8, a seven-month low, while short-term inflation expectations surged to 4.3%, intensifying market concerns about future inflation. The dollar index thus rose sharply, with various U.S. Treasury yields climbing significantly, and yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds increased by more than 1%.
Under the influence of this economic data, gold prices rose again, reaching a new high of $2,886.83 per ounce and continued to climb, marking six consecutive weeks of increase. International oil prices also rose across the board, although slightly retreating this week; U.S. crude March contracts and Brent April contracts rose by 0.64% and 0.59% respectively.
In the stock market, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.34%, with Chinese tech stocks performing strongly. Several Chinese concept stocks such as Futu Holdings, Tiger Brokers, and Li Auto recorded significant increases, demonstrating the strong performance of Chinese assets. As U.S. economic data were released, the market's focus on Federal Reserve policy intensified, but overall, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset continues to rise.
Overall, the strong growth of Russia’s economy contrasts with the weaker U.S. employment data, fueling global market uncertainties, and safe-haven assets like gold remain highly sought after.
