The latest poll shows strong Canadian public support for imposing an export tax on oil as a retaliatory measure against President Donald Trump's tariff hikes, following the fluctuations caused by Trump's tariff policies. This support indicates the anger of Canadians towards Trump's policies and may push the Canadian government to take a firmer stance against Trump's threats in the future.
On the 1st of this month, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, with the sole exception of energy products, which had a tariff rate of 10%. In response, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau quickly announced retaliatory measures. However, before these tariff policies took effect, Trump declared that due to Canada's agreement to take measures ensuring U.S. border security, the imposition of tariffs on Canada would be delayed by 30 days.
According to the latest poll by Nanos Research Group, 82% of Canadians support unilaterally raising the price of oil exported to the U.S. when Trump imposes tariffs on Canada but exempts oil. This strong support reflects Canadians' willingness to use oil as a countermeasure to Trump's tariff policies, even if this move could negatively impact their own economy.
Further analysis shows that in Canada's western prairie provinces, 72% of residents support this measure. This region includes Alberta, Canada's main oil-producing province. Despite Alberta Premier Daniel Smith's refusal last month to sign a Canadian leaders' joint statement, which did not rule out restricting energy exports, Canadians seem to be in favor of an oil export tax.
In the four Atlantic coastal provinces, 90% of respondents support adopting retaliatory oil policies, and these regions also have offshore oil projects. When asked if they support additional tariffs on imported U.S. goods, 79% of Canadians expressed support, even if it means paying higher prices for goods.
For Canada-U.S. trade, oil remains Canada's most potent countermeasure. Despite the appearance of large U.S. crude oil capacity, much of it is light crude, requiring heavy crude imports from Canada to produce diesel and aviation fuel. Due to the shared border and low transportation costs, and given that the energy supply chain is deeply integrated into the U.S. economy, the U.S. relies on Canada for about 4 million barrels of crude oil annually, accounting for 60% of its net imports.
If Canada implements a retaliatory oil policy, analysts predict that drivers in the Great Lakes and Midwest regions of the U.S. might see gasoline prices rise by 20 cents per gallon. Combined with routine refinery maintenance and seasonal demand pressures, gasoline prices are expected to increase from the current $3 per gallon to around $4.
