On Tuesday (November 5th) during the Asian early session, crude oil prices continued to rise, with U.S. crude currently trading around $71.51 per barrel. The market expects a boost in future oil demand as the U.S. election approaches, while OPEC+'s announcement to delay production increases further deepens market optimism. Factors on both demand and supply sides are driving oil prices higher. A bullish trend is gradually emerging, and if it can break through the technical resistance range, oil prices may rise further.
According to a Reuters survey, OPEC's October production rebounded from its lowest level this year, reaching 26.33 million barrels per day, an increase of 195,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month. The main increases came from Libya and Venezuela, particularly Libya, which saw significant production boosts after resolving its political crisis. Additionally, OPEC+ announced that the planned production increase for December will be postponed to next January, reflecting caution about future demand and a desire to extend current production cuts to counter weak demand and increased supply. This move also alleviates market concerns about the risk of a "price war," contributing to stable oil prices.
Meanwhile, with the upcoming U.S. election, investors are closely watching the potential impact of election results on energy policies and crude oil demand. Analysts indicate that if the Republican party wins, it may continue current energy policies, supporting domestic oil and gas production, providing moderate support for oil prices. Conversely, if the Democratic party wins, it may favor environmental policies, imposing restrictions on the traditional energy industry.
On the demand side, the Gulf of Mexico may be affected by a tropical storm this weekend, expected to reduce output by 4 million barrels, further increasing supply pressure. Meanwhile, the policies of major Asian economies are also a market focus, with expectations that Asia may introduce more economic stimulus measures, thereby boosting energy demand.
However, from a technical perspective, short-term upward movement in oil prices still faces challenges. Currently, oil prices need to break through the key resistance range of $71.50/$72.50 to alleviate downward pressure and form a more stable upward trend. Analysts note that if oil prices break through this range, they may further target $78.50 per barrel. If they decline, initial support is around the two-month low of $70 per barrel.
Overall, the current oil market is gradually becoming bullish, but factors such as the U.S. election, OPEC+ policies, inventory data, and Asian market policies will continue to influence oil prices in the short term.
