On Thursday, international oil prices significantly fell back, failing to continue the upward trend, and remained within a week-long fluctuation range. After the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its March report that day, market sentiment was pressured, and oil prices retreated from their high levels. The report showed that the IEA increased its forecast for global oil supply surplus in 2025 to about 600,000 barrels per day, compared to a previous report predicting 450,000 barrels per day. Compared to the 950,000 barrels per day surplus predicted at the beginning of the year, this latest adjustment still indicates significant variability in market supply and demand conditions. Additionally, the IEA lowered its demand growth forecast for 2025 by 70,000 barrels per day to around 1 million barrels per day.
The IEA warned that if OPEC+ fails to effectively control production surplus and continues to advance its plan to gradually cancel production cuts, the global crude oil market's supply surplus might further increase by 400,000 barrels per day. The market interpreted this report as sending a pessimistic signal, leading to pressure on oil prices and causing them to fall back.
Geopolitical Factors Continue to Affect Market Sentiment
On the geopolitical front, Russia's response to Ukraine's ceasefire proposal impacted market trends. The Kremlin stated that the current 30-day ceasefire proposal was too hasty and needed further adjustment based on Russian interests. Russian President Putin expressed his gratitude to U.S. President Trump for his attention to the Ukrainian issue, stating that Russia supports the ceasefire but further discussion on specific plans is needed. The market remained cautious about Putin's statement, oil prices experienced short-term fluctuations, initially dropping sharply and then slightly rebounding. However, the market as a whole tends to interpret this as a signal of easing geopolitical tensions.
Macro-Economic Factors Exert Dual Influence on Oil Prices
The latest U.S. initial jobless claims and February's Producer Price Index (PPI) failed to provide clear direction for the market, but concerns about economic recession continued to ferment among investors. U.S. stocks continued their downward trend, while risk-averse sentiment pushed gold prices to new highs. Concerns about the global economic outlook limited the space for oil prices to rebound, ultimately leading to oil prices giving back most of the previous day's gains.
Overall, with the IEA report releasing bearish signals, expectations of easing geopolitical tensions, and macro-economic data failing to provide effective support, oil prices remain in a fluctuating repair rhythm, with high market volatility continuing, and investors need to pay attention to rhythm management.
