As the US dollar declines, global stock markets are rising, and investor sentiment is active, which is typically beneficial for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and the Australian dollar (AUD). The strengthening of the NZD is also putting pressure on other G10 currencies, with the euro and the pound falling throughout August. If the NZD/USD continues to rise, it could pressure GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD, possibly dropping to new lows not seen in months.
Philip Wee, a senior foreign exchange strategist at DBS Bank, predicts that the NZD/USD may recover to the 0.6320 level by the end of the year, fully retracing this year's losses. He pointed out that the NZD/USD has broken through this year's major psychological resistance level of 0.62.
It is worth mentioning that despite the unexpected rate cut by New Zealand in August, the NZD has remained strong. Wee explained that as the market expects the Federal Reserve to announce a rate cut at its September 18 meeting, the focus quickly shifted to the weakening US dollar.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted last week that a rate cut in September is likely, saying, "The timing for policy adjustment has matured," which has pressured the US dollar and led to a rebound in the NZD.
In fact, as early as last week, strategists at JP Morgan indicated that the possibility of further weakening of the NZD after the first rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was low and advised investors to reduce short positions. This strategy suggests that JP Morgan believes the NZD's weakness related to the August rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may be nearing its end.
As of 9:18 AM Beijing time on August 20, the NZD/USD was 0.6270/72.
