An analysis of the flight data and video by The New York Times shows that, in the minutes before its crash, the private jet carrying Prigozhin likely experienced at least one catastrophic mid-air event. Experts indicate that the rapid descent and the large amount of debris suggest the plane likely exploded or disintegrated suddenly, rather than succumbing to a mechanical failure.
Original flight tracking data from FlightRadar24 indicated that Prigozhin's aircraft abruptly began to descend around 6:19 PM local time. According to the flight data and the analysis of videos from the crash site and wreckage, after its sudden descent, the aircraft continued to fly for a few minutes, covering about 30 miles before it quickly and abruptly crashed.
Videos posted on the instant messaging app Telegram show the airplane's wreckage spread across three locations, spanning approximately two miles. The first location contained the main fuselage, the second the tail section, and the third comprised smaller pieces of fuselage. The videos show the wreckage's positioning largely consistent with the direction of the aircraft's flight.
Ian Williams, Deputy Director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stated that airplanes do not typically fall straight from the sky unless something halts their forward momentum. If the aircraft did not suffer any structural damage during flight, observing such a large area of debris is unusual.
Although The New York Times could not confirm the exact cause of the crash, up till now, no direct evidence has been found that links the crash to conventional mechanical failure. Moreover, The New York Times’ analysis aligns with the mainstream views of US and other Western officials, suggesting the crash was likely caused by some kind of explosion.
Following the crash, after a preliminary assessment, the Pentagon believes that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, most likely died in the incident. Prigozhin had led a brief rebellion against the Russian military leadership in June of this year.
Currently, although the international community has varying opinions on the cause of Prigozhin's plane crash, the more significant impact of the event is the loss of the Wagner Group's core leadership. As Russia's most capable armed group and one with significant influence in the southern part of the country, losing Prigozhin will undoubtedly create a power vacuum. This vacuum not only has the potential to cause short-term instability but may also exacerbate the divide between Russia's southern regions and the central government in the medium to long term.
More critically, as the vanguard of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, should the Wagner Group opt to "lie low" following the Prigozhin incident, it could further diminish Russia's advantage in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, intensifying Russia's economic and political dilemma.
