One of the most notable changes in China's tech stocks this year isn't the rebound of traditional giants, but the consistent capture of market attention by new AI upstarts. According to a March 16th commentary by Reuters Breakingviews, Alibaba and Tencent, once symbols of China's internet golden era, no longer hold the central position in AI investment narratives. Last week, MiniMax briefly surpassed Baidu's market value, and since their January listing in Hong Kong, both Zhipu and MiniMax have experienced triple-digit stock growth, whereas Alibaba and Tencent's stock prices have dropped 7% and 9% respectively this year.
Why New Companies Are More Favored
The core reason is that the capital market is restructuring who appears to be the next-generation AI platform rather than pricing based on the scale of traditional internet-age giants. Reuters states that ByteDance's Duobao has become China’s most popular chatbot; Zhipu is rated by Artificial Analysis as having one of China's best large models. In contrast, although Alibaba and Tencent are both increasing their AI investments, the market has yet to see them as the strongest leaders in this wave of innovation.
Fundamentals Also Lagging
Traditional giants lag in stock prices for a more tangible reason: their main business growth is slowing. According to Reuters Breakingviews citing Visible Alpha data, Alibaba's China e-commerce business is expected to see revenue growth below 5% for the quarter ending December last year, still accounting for nearly half of total revenue; Tencent’s gaming, digital media, and social network business is projected to grow about 13%, relatively stable but lacking the growth imagination compared to AI newcomers. Conversely, MiniMax expects a full-year revenue growth of 159% by 2025, more aligned with the current market preference for high-growth assets, albeit from a lower base.
OpenClaw Craze Reflects Industry Anxiety
The recent craze around OpenClaw in the Chinese tech circle also explains why giants must accelerate their follow-up. A March 9 Reuters report stated that OpenClaw is an open-source AI assistant capable of accessing a wide range of applications and system permissions, executing tasks like booking tickets and organizing emails, and spreading rapidly in China’s tech and manufacturing hubs. On March 11, Reuters reported that Chinese government agencies and state-owned enterprises had cautioned employees against installing this tool for safety reasons. This phenomenon shows that the proliferation speed of intelligent agents might far outpace the product iteration speed of platform companies, compelling companies like Tencent and Zhipu to quickly launch compatible versions to compete for access points.
Old Giants Haven't Lost All Chances
From an investment perspective, this is not a “BAT exit” conclusion. A January 8 Reuters report noted that AI companies like Zhipu and MiniMax are still burning money, with R&D spending far exceeding revenue, and their profit models are not yet solid. Although the traditional giants lag in narratives, they still possess cash flow, cloud infrastructure, user ecosystems, and distribution capabilities. The real change is that the market no longer presumes they are inevitably the biggest winners of every technological revolution.
Version Three—Global Financial Media Style
The power structure in China’s tech industry is seeing an unusual shift due to AI, as noted by Reuters Breakingviews on March 16. The traditional internet powers represented by Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu are no longer inherently occupying the valuation high ground in the new track driven by large models, chatbots, and intelligent agents. Last week, MiniMax’s market value briefly surpassed Baidu’s, and Zhipu and MiniMax have seen triple-digit stock price gains since their listing in Hong Kong, while Alibaba and Tencent have fallen 7% and 9% respectively so far this year.
From Consumer Internet to Model Competition
The essence of this change is the industry's value center shifting from "traffic entry" to "model capability" and "agency execution capability". BAT once relied on e-commerce, search, payment, social, and entertainment to build closed and highly adhesive digital ecosystems, but AI era's new winners might not need to first establish vast platforms and then monetize traffic. Reuters reports that Byte's Duobao has already become China's most popular chatbot, and Zhipu is listed by Artificial Analysis as one of China’s leading model providers, indicating that both users and capital are embracing a new competitive logic.
Platform Moat Faces Reevaluation
More noteworthy is the potential weakening of the core commercial moat of super apps due to intelligent agents. If users complete tasks such as ordering, payments, and scheduling through AI assistants, the direct control over attention, ad displays, and behavior data by the platforms will be diluted. A March 9 Reuters report notes that OpenClaw quickly became popular in China’s tech circles, prompting local government support policies; however, a March 11 report shows central regulatory and some state-owned enterprise systems have issued warnings against its use due to security risks. The coexistence of innovation facilitation and control prevention indicates that intelligent agents are not only a technical hotspot but also a potential disturbance source for platform order.
Newcomers Not without Concerns
While capital markets favor AI newcomers, these enterprises are still in high-investment, low-profit, or even loss stages. A January 8 Reuters report states that Zhipu and MiniMax face high R&D expenses, fierce price competition, and tight financing environments. In other words, AI is weakening the monopolistic expectations of China’s old internet order but has not yet established a fully mature new order. For investors, this resembles a preemptive switch in valuation logic rather than a decided commercial structure.
Next Stage Observation Points
The key in the next stage is not just which companies have stronger models, but who can steadily convert model capabilities into application distribution, enterprise income, and sustainable profits. If intelligent agents continue to proliferate quickly, Tencent and Alibaba may have space for a second attack, leveraging their payment, social, cloud, and enterprise software systems; if new players complete the ecosystem loop first, the center of China’s tech industry may continue to shift towards “AI native companies”. At least for now, the market has started to express with real money a judgment: the dominance of old giants is no longer viewed as a given.
