Despite the hike in interest rates and the postponement of expected rate cuts following the release of last week's U.S. employment report, the stock market rose, further detaching the stock market from reality.
Last Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the U.S. unemployment rate had risen to 4.0% for the first time since January 2022, with non-farm payrolls increasing significantly by 272,000 last month, indicating that the Federal Reserve might continue to delay the commencement of rate cuts.
In a report on June 10, JPMorgan noted, "We believe the likelihood of monetary policy easing this year has decreased, and we expect the Federal Reserve's first rate cut to be delayed until November."
However, the stock market remains in high demand, as investors seem to be ignoring numerous risks, including political risks (last week some emerging markets issued warning signals for the remaining elections this year due to political turmoil), geopolitical risks, excessively high market concentration, a surge in meme stocks and cryptocurrency trading that may indicate a market bubble, still high inflation and interest rates, and many macro signals pointing to a high risk of economic slowdown or recession.
JPMorgan added, "Despite these numerous risks, the stock market continues to trade near historic highs, with investor sentiment and positioning both very high."
In light of this, JPMorgan has taken a defensive stance in its model investment portfolio, reducing equity holdings and increasing the weight of commodities and cash.
At the same time, due to ongoing inflationary pressures and robust data, the European Central Bank's easing expectations may be delayed, and it has also closed its overweight position in eurozone versus U.S. bonds.
