Financial Calendar
April 26 (Friday) Data and Financial Events (Beijing Time)
To be determined Bank of Japan to announce interest rate decision and outlook report
14:30 Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to hold a press conference
20:30 U.S. March Core PCE Price Index YoY
U.S. March Personal Spending MoM
U.S. March Core PCE Price Index MoM
22:00 U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Final
U.S. April One-Year Inflation Rate Forecast
April 27
01:00 U.S. Oil Rig Count for the Week Ending April 26
Market Review
On Thursday, the U.S. Q1 annualized quarterly GDP growth rate was significantly below expectations, recording the lowest growth since Q1 of last year; the U.S. Q1 Core PCE Price Index annualized quarterly rate was 3.7%, a new high since Q2 of last year, marking a strong rebound from the previous month. The weakening of GDP data and the sharp rise in inflation led traders to push back the expected timing of the Fed's first rate cut to December, after the data was released. Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed's mouthpiece", pointed out in his latest article that inflation is stronger than expected for the third time, making the dream of rate cuts increasingly distant. The U.S. dollar index briefly rebounded to the 106 level but faced resistance and eventually closed at 105.58.
Today's Focus
U.S. Dollar Index: After a short-term double top breakout and retest, the downward trend continues. Attention will be on whether economic data releases can reverse the downtrend, with continued downward oscillation expected if it cannot effectively break above yesterday's high point. Support remains at the 105 level.
EUR/USD: The price continues its short-term oscillatory upward trend. For today, the approach of not breaking below the 1.0678 low point remains unchanged. Resistance is in the 1.078 area, with opportunities for long positions after market prices stabilize following upward oscillation.
GBP/USD: The price is nearing the upper resistance area. Focus on the situation of entering the resistance area with a potential reversal. Be cautious with long positions before breaking the 1.254-1.256 area, a reversal without a break can be a short opportunity.
USD/JPY: The price continues its oscillatory upward trend, with focus on the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision today. For aggressive traders, short positions can be taken based on the anticipation of the Bank of Japan continuing to raise interest rates, with a stable downward trend expected after the announcement for conservative traders.
AUD/USD: The price is nearing the upper resistance area. Before a significant break of the 0.654-0.656 area, focus on a potential reversal for continued short positions. Support in the short term is at the 0.648 level, with potential for short long positions if the downward trend does not break.
USD/CAD: The price continues its oscillatory downward trend, with a retest of the 1.372-1.374 resistance area yesterday followed by a downtrend. Focus today on the 1.365 support area, with continued short positions expected if a counter rally breaks downwards.
Crude Oil: For those who entered around 82 as suggested yesterday for long positions, it's advisable to continue holding in the short term. Resistance is still at the 85-85.5 area, with taking profits and exiting long positions recommended upon reaching.
Gold: The price is in short-term oscillation, wandering within the 2330-2340 resistance area. The upper major resistance is above 2370, with potential long positions on a breakthrough above 2340. It's advisable to continue observing and wait for a direction during this wandering phase.
S&P Index: After stabilizing and ascending post a fallback to 5000, short positions are advisable to be held. Resistance is at the 5140-5160 area. Upon reaching resistance, it's advisable to reduce and take profits on long positions, anticipating potential significant pullbacks in light of U.S. data releases.
Bitcoin: Following a short-term breakout and retest, the price remains above 64000, with short-long positions still viable. Short-term resistance is in the 66000-67000 area, with short positions to be considered upon reversal at these levels. Hold long positions until then.
