- On April 12, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi brought constitutional reform back to the forefront of the political agenda at the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) convention, stating that "the time has come" and urging efforts to advance the constitutional revision to a stage where "prospects are visible" before the 2027 party convention.
- Beyond market and diplomatic cues, the real variables within Japan are twofold: first, the LDP secured 316 seats in the House of Representatives election in February, surpassing the two-thirds threshold on its own; second, constitutional amendment still requires approval by the House of Councillors and a national referendum, with no procedural shortcuts.
- Public resistance is also rising concurrently. Reports from Mainichi and others indicate that approximately 30,000 people gathered near the National Diet on April 8, with over 160 actions nationwide on the same theme, totaling nearly 50,000 participants, showing that "opposition to constitutional revision" has extended beyond public discourse to ongoing mobilization.
Policy Signals
This time, Takaichi's speech was not just a general statement but provided a clearer schedule. In her address at the party convention, she defined "drafting Japan's constitution by the Japanese themselves" as the party's mission, stating that "the time has come." A subsequent report from Jiji further clarified that she hopes to be able to say at next year's party convention that the constitutional revision initiative "is taking shape." This suggests that more political resources in the remaining time of 2026 may be allocated to constitutional review, cross-party coordination, and public mobilization.
Institutional Barriers
It needs to be emphasized that constitutional revision cannot be directly completed by the Prime Minister or a single party. Article 96 of the Constitution, as stated on the Japanese House of Representatives' website, specifies that any amendment requires approval by a two-thirds majority in both houses and must then be passed by a national referendum with a majority of valid votes. This means that even if the LDP holds an advantage in the lower house, the real difficulties lie in gaining enough seats in the upper house and passing the national referendum. Recent reports by British media also point out the realistic challenges Takaichi faces in securing sufficient support in the upper house and passing the referendum.
Street Response
The scale of protests is expanding, and they are no longer confined to a single point in Tokyo. Mainichi reported that about 30,000 people gathered near the National Diet on the evening of April 8; other public reports quoting Kyodo News indicate over 160 locations nationwide held simultaneous actions with nearly 50,000 participants in total. On April 19, anti-amendment groups have already announced a new round of "19th Action," though there are differences in the venues indicated on various organizing pages, such as "in front of the National Diet main entrance" and "in front of the Members’ Office Building," which itself indicates that the actions are still in the ongoing organizational phase.
