- In an exclusive interview with NBC, U.S. President Donald Trump made it clear that the United States will not unfreeze any of Iran's frozen assets or ease existing economic sanctions until a final peace agreement is reached with Tehran.
- Trump emphasized that U.S.-Iran negotiations are very close to being finalized, but simultaneously issued a stern military warning to Tehran. He also expressed, for the first time, an openness to direct dialogue with Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not appeared publicly since being injured in a conflict.
- Despite ongoing airstrikes by the U.S.-Israeli coalition against Iran since February 28, 2026, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio insists that the current temporary ceasefire agreement remains binding and emphasized that recent military actions are purely defensive.
Washington Maintains High-Pressure Sanctions Leverage
In interviews cited by Reuters and other media, President Trump reiterated his tough stance on Tehran. He made it clear that unfreezing Iran's overseas assets and easing economic sanctions are steps to be taken after a comprehensive agreement is reached. The U.S. will not release any economic liquidity before substantial progress in negotiations. Currently, Washington views asset freezes and sanctions as core bargaining chips, aiming to force Iran's decision-makers to accept the U.S. framework under continued economic pressure.
Extreme Military Deterrence and Direct Leadership Dialogue Coexist
Under the guidance of maximum pressure, the White House has demonstrated a dual-track approach. On one hand, Trump issued extremely severe military warnings to Tehran, stating that if potential peace agreement negotiations ultimately fail, the U.S. military will carry out comprehensive destructive strikes. On the other hand, Trump has unusually expressed a willingness to negotiate directly with Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba, who has withdrawn from public view since being injured in a U.S. airstrike earlier this year. Trump hinted that the U.S. is aware of his status, combining high-intensity military punishment expectations with a channel for top-level dialogue to exert multiple pressures on Iran's leadership.
Temporary Ceasefire Mechanism and Geopolitical Defense Positioning
Although diplomatic rhetoric has raised market concerns about escalating conflict, practical officials within the Trump administration are trying to temper expectations of full-scale confrontation. Secretary of State Rubio insists that despite multiple rounds of strikes by U.S. and Israeli forces on Iranian targets in recent weeks, the previous temporary ceasefire agreement remains largely binding. Rubio emphasized that all recent tactical actions by the coalition are defensive in nature, aimed at curbing immediate attack risks. This policy division indicates that the White House is attempting to maintain high-frequency military confrontations on the front lines while keeping a window open for baseline negotiations.
Cross-Asset Linkages and Commodity Risk Variables
As Washington fully reveals its negotiating cards with Iran, the evolution of the Middle East situation has become an essential variable in global financial markets. Since the U.S. has not included the Lebanese situation in the short-term agreement framework with Iran, this has somewhat limited the systemic spillover of conflict risks. However, if key negotiations in the coming weeks break down, the potential risk of disruption to the global oil supply chain will rise significantly, leading to a possible repricing of commodity premiums and global inflation expectations. If core inflation rebounds as a result, the interest rate paths of major global central banks may undergo marginal reassessment, triggering significant volatility in sovereign bond yields and foreign exchange markets.
