Market sentiment quickly reversed after news of an easing in US-Iran relations. According to CNBC reports, US President Trump announced a delay in military strikes on Iranian energy facilities, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures briefly fell below $90 per barrel, and Brent crude also fell more than 9%, approaching the $100 mark before narrowing the losses.
Market Reaction
Trump stated on social media that the US and Iran had "positive and constructive" discussions over the past two days and are working towards a comprehensive resolution of Middle Eastern hostilities. The market reacted swiftly to this news, with oil prices significantly retreating, reflecting investors' heightened sensitivity to the Middle East situation.
Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecast
Despite the short-term pullback in oil prices, Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecast. It now expects the average price of Brent crude to reach $110 per barrel in March and April, up from the previous forecast of $98. The forecast for WTI crude is also revised upwards to $98 per barrel in March and $105 in April.
Oil Prices and Geopolitics
The market continues to closely monitor the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's blockade of the strait has heightened global supply concerns, with the strait being a key passage for global oil transportation. International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Birol warned that the Middle East situation could surpass the oil crisis of the 1970s, posing severe challenges to global supply chains.
Outlook
Although market sentiment has shifted somewhat due to Trump's statement, geopolitical risks remain. The future trend of oil prices will depend on the status of the Strait of Hormuz’s openness and the progress of further US-Iran dialogues.
