Official statistics released on Tuesday show that Argentina's inflation level at the end of 2025 is 31.5%.
Data Overview: 31.5% for the Year, 2.8% in December
According to the latest figures, the monthly inflation rate in December was 2.8%, rising from 2.5% in November.
Versus Expectations: Monthly Figures Higher than Market Predictions
The market had generally expected December's monthly inflation to remain unchanged from November, but the actual reported figures were slightly above expectations. This has led investors to adopt a more cautious view on the future path of inflation, with short-term focus returning to whether "monthly fluctuations will be repeated."
Background Contrast: Significant Cooling of Inflation but Uneven Reduction
When viewed over a longer cycle, the annual figure of 31.5% represents a multi-year low range: Reuters noted in a previous survey that Argentina's annual inflation fell sharply from 117.8% in December 2024, with reasons for the slowdown linked to government austerity measures and increased competition from trade liberalization (with an increase in imports of some goods); however, it also emphasized that costs for housing, utilities, and other services could serve as more resilient sources of inflation.
This "structural divergence" is also evident in the December subcategories: clothes, footwear, and education saw relatively low increases for the month, while transportation and housing-related items were more prominent.
Future Observations: CPI Calculation Method to be Adjusted, Inflation Path Might Focus More on Services
Another variable worth noting is the change in calculation methods. Reuters mentioned that INDEC plans to implement a new CPI method starting with the January 2026 data (to be released later), and since service prices usually adjust more quickly, the weight adjustments may affect future readings and comparability. Meanwhile, Reuters also cited market expectations based on central bank surveys, anticipating that inflation could continue to decline by the end of 2026 (with consensus forecasts around 20.1%).
