- • At least a quarter of non-Iranian merchant ships trapped in the Strait of Hormuz have successfully escaped, as the US military provides crucial navigation advice to shipping operators. Some shipping companies, which had temporarily halted operations after the conflict erupted, are gradually resuming passage in the area.
- • The US and Iran are close to reaching an agreement to extend the 60-day ceasefire and restart nuclear program negotiations. Although the White House Situation Room has not made a final decision, market optimism about the reopening of this critical waterway has significantly increased.
- • Global tanker freight rates remain at historic highs not seen in decades. If a geopolitical agreement is finalized and encourages shipowners to fully return to the route, the crude oil transport market may experience significant short-term price volatility driven by restocking demand.
US Military Safety Advice Helps Merchant Ships Gradually Escape
According to sources familiar with the shipping market, more merchant ships have successfully sailed out of the Strait of Hormuz this week as the US Central Command (CENTCOM) provides specific navigation advice to commercial shipping companies. A US military spokesperson clarified that they are not directly providing naval escorts but are continuously offering navigation safety communications. Data shows that since the conflict erupted, at least a quarter of the non-Iranian ships trapped have successfully escaped, and some shipping companies that had previously halted operations are redeploying ships into the Persian Gulf. Additionally, because some ships have turned off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) satellite signals during their voyages, the actual number of passages may be underestimated by traditional data.
Energy Giants Remain Cautious About Geopolitical Risks
Although national oil companies in the Middle East, including Saudi Aramco (ARMCO:SR), have gradually resumed dispatching ships through the strait, and Qatar continues to quietly export liquefied natural gas (LNG), multinational energy giants remain highly cautious. Chevron (CVX:US) CEO Mike Wirth confirmed that there have been recent ship attacks. TotalEnergies (TTE:FP) CEO Patrick Pouyanné stated that the company needs to see clear signs of lasting peace before considering sending its ships back to the Persian Gulf. Most shipowners admit that market uncertainty remains high until the details of a formal agreement are announced.
Ceasefire Agreement Negotiations Influence Passage Prospects
The global market's core focus is currently on the potential agreement between the US and Iran, which includes extending the existing ceasefire by 60 days and negotiating nuclear program arrangements. The agreement still requires approval from US President Trump. Although Trump held a Situation Room meeting at the White House to discuss the final plan, informed officials revealed that the meeting did not reach a final decision. If a peace agreement materializes, it will help fully restore shipping through the strait and alleviate the liquidity bottleneck of commodities; if negotiations stall, geopolitical risk premiums and market pricing may face a comprehensive reassessment.
Restocking Demand May Support High Tanker Freight Rates
Global tanker freight rates are currently at historic highs. Capital Tankers CEO Gerasimos Kalogiratos stated at this week's press conference that if the strait reopens, the market will enter a near-frenzied active phase driven by global restocking demand in the short term. He believes that even if long-term stability leads to a decline in risk premiums, tanker freight rates are expected to remain high in the coming period due to the need for countries worldwide to replenish crude oil inventories depleted by the conflict.
