The gold market is experiencing a typical "delayed safe-haven response," with macroeconomic logic replacing geopolitical events as the dominant pricing factor.
UBS maintains a bullish view, expecting gold prices to rise to the $5,900 to $6,200 range by the end of the year. Although the current price is consolidating around $5,200, analysts consider this phase as a period of consolidation before a risk reassessment.
Historical experience shows that in the early stages of war, funds tend to flow more towards the U.S. dollar and energy assets rather than gold. This phenomenon has been observed during the Russia-Ukraine conflict and earlier Middle Eastern wars.
The main factors currently suppressing gold prices are interest rate expectations and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Rising energy prices are driving inflation expectations up, and the market anticipates major central banks maintaining tight monetary policies, thereby weakening the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
However, from a structural demand perspective, support remains solid. The trend of central banks purchasing gold continues, hedge funds are increasing long positions, and growing consumer demand in emerging markets together form the basis for long-term upward momentum.
