Gold:
Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated in a public speech overnight that it is not yet the right time to cut interest rates. He emphasized maintaining the current interest rate levels for a longer period until U.S. inflation returns to the 2% target. Bowman believes that there will be no rate cuts this year, pushing the timeline to 2025. If U.S. inflation progress stalls or reverses, Bowman is prepared to support rate hikes in future meetings. This hawkish statement is unfavorable for gold prices.
On the U.S. front, Israeli Defense Minister Gallant confirmed to U.S. Secretary of State Blinken that Israel hopes to resolve tensions with Hezbollah in the northern region through diplomatic means. If geopolitical frictions cool down, gold prices will face short-term downward pressure.
Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, the previous trading day's rally retraced and closed with a small bearish candle, indicating some upward pressure. However, the market has been mainly consolidating for several consecutive trading days, and this trend is likely to continue in the short term. Intraday, watch for resistance at $2,335 and support at $2,300.
Crude Oil:
With uncertainties around the Fed's rate cut outlook and OPEC+'s future production policies, market attention is focused on U.S. summer oil demand. Especially during the peak summer demand in the U.S., the market is optimistic about increased gasoline consumption, which continues to boost bullish sentiment.
Investors can monitor changes in U.S. oil inventories and consumption patterns. If inventory drawdowns continue effectively, crude oil prices have the opportunity to rise further. Otherwise, there is still a risk of oil prices declining.
Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, the previous trading day's rally retraced and closed with a bearish candle, warning of further downside risk for oil prices. However, the market is still trading above the 20-day moving average, giving short-term advantage to the bulls. Intraday, watch for resistance at $82 and support at $80.
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