- The United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy (E4) issued a joint statement announcing that they will lift sanctions on Iran once the United States and Iran reach a conflict cessation agreement and Iran fulfills its nuclear program commitments.
- Iran's Mehr News Agency disclosed the core terms of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which requires the complete lifting of the maritime blockade and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within thirty days, while also suspending sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil and petrochemical products.
- The memorandum stipulates that the sixty-day negotiation period for the final agreement will focus on nuclear issues, and the US and its allies must submit an Iranian reconstruction plan totaling at least $300 billion. If core geopolitical risks subside, the global energy supply landscape and risk premiums will face reassessment.
European Quartet Signals Policy Shift
On the 14th, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy (E4) issued a joint statement clearly stating that if the US and Iran reach an agreement to end the conflict, and Iran takes corresponding measures regarding its nuclear program, the four countries will initiate the process of lifting sanctions on Iran. The statement emphasized that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons remains a core goal for all parties, and European parties are willing to work closely with the United States, Iran, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This statement marks a marginal improvement in the geopolitical stalemate in the Middle East, with multilateral sanctions facing a potential turning point. If subsequent implementation mechanisms are established, Western diplomatic and economic policies towards Iran will enter a substantive adjustment phase, and legal barriers to normal commercial exchanges between European financial institutions and Iran are expected to be gradually removed.
Details of the Memorandum's Core Terms Leaked
According to information disclosed by Iran's Mehr News Agency in the early hours of the 15th, the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) contains fourteen clauses. Among them, the core terms require an immediate and permanent ceasefire on all fronts, including within Lebanon. Additionally, the memorandum clarifies the mechanism linking the unfreezing of funds to the start of negotiations, stipulating that before final negotiations begin, half of Iran's frozen $24 billion funds, i.e., $12 billion, must be unfrozen. The US and its allies also need to submit an Iranian reconstruction plan totaling at least $300 billion. Analysts point out that if the aforementioned funds and reconstruction plan are implemented, they will have a profound impact on the fiscal budgets of the relevant countries and the flow of cross-border capital, potentially creating new investment opportunities in regional economic reconstruction.
Adjustment Window for the Strait of Hormuz and Oil Sanctions
In terms of logistics and trade restrictions, which are highly watched by the energy market, the memorandum proposes that within thirty days, the US must completely lift the maritime blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz according to Iran's arrangements. Meanwhile, the West will suspend sanctions on the sale of Iranian crude oil and petrochemical products. As the world's most important oil transportation chokepoint, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the compliant return of Iranian oil supply to the market will directly alter the global oil supply-demand balance. If millions of barrels of oil and petrochemical supplies are released daily, the price centers of Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil may come under pressure, and the geopolitical risk premium in the global commodity market will face significant compression.
Framework for Final Agreement Negotiations and Multilateral Endorsement Path
The memorandum strictly limits the scope and procedures of the negotiations. During the sixty-day negotiation period for the final agreement, only nuclear issues will be discussed, while Iran's missile program and its support for regional resistance fronts will be explicitly excluded from the final agreement negotiations. This scope exclusion helps reduce the risk of short-term negotiation breakdowns but also lays the groundwork for long-term geopolitical uncertainty. If a final agreement is reached, it will receive formal endorsement through a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution, thereby establishing its legal validity under international law. If the UN resolution is successfully passed, the compliance costs faced by global commodity traders and multinational financial institutions when re-entering the Middle East market will be significantly reduced, and the marginal effectiveness of international multilateral governance mechanisms will be somewhat restored.
