In the Asian market trading on November 1, gold prices stabilized temporarily near the support line of $2730 per ounce after a sharp drop of $50 overnight. The market's attention has shifted to the upcoming release of the U.S. October non-farm employment data that evening. Global investment banks and financial institutions, totaling 71 in all, generally hold a pessimistic view of this non-farm data, with a median forecast suggesting that non-farm payrolls may increase by only 113,000, which is below the previously expected market growth rate. This data might turn out to be the "lifesaver" for gold prices.
According to the usual market logic, weak non-farm data is typically favorable for gold, because lower employment growth may slow the Federal Reserve's further rate hikes. However, from a technical perspective, there is currently no evident reversal signal in gold prices, and whether a double-bottom rebound can form at the $2730 level requires further observation. If the non-farm data is weak, it might support gold prices to test the $2758 to $2770 range upward. But if it falls below $2730, it could trigger a further decline to the $2710 or even $2685 adjustment range.
The latest forecasts from globally renowned investment banks indicate that the expected median for October U.S. non-farm employment is an increase of 113,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate anticipated at 4.1%, and average hourly wage growth expected at 4% annually. Despite the general pessimism from investment banks about this non-farm data, history has shown instances where actual results exceed expectations, thus maintaining a wait-and-see market sentiment. Before the non-farm data release, some short-term bears might choose to take profits, which could lead to a slight rebound in gold prices, as investors generally adopt a cautious strategy of more observing and less action.
Market forecast values play a crucial role in investor positioning, especially before major data is released, as these predictions can influence market sentiment and the balance of long and short positions. Although forecasts may not be entirely accurate, studying this data in advance still helps investors adjust their strategies. Investors will closely watch the impact of non-farm data on gold trends, hoping tonight's data will provide clearer directional guidance for the gold market.
