Gold Aspect:
Recent US manufacturing data has softened, coupled with previously released weak US job market data, indicating a cooling of economic activity in the US. Although the softening economic data does not show a comprehensive decline in economic activity, it opens the door for the Federal Reserve to start a rate-cutting cycle, potentially limiting the downside for gold prices.
US job vacancies in April fell to their lowest level since 2021. Following the data release, the market is optimistic about the Fed accelerating rate cuts, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to its lowest level since May 16. In the short term, gold prices are likely to find support.
Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, the previous trading day saw a pullback from the highs and a close in the red, indicating a risk of further short-term decline. However, the market has been in a range for several consecutive trading days, and this trend is expected to continue in the short term. Intraday, watch for resistance at the 2350 level and support at the 2300 level.
Crude Oil Aspect:
This morning, the API crude oil inventory data for the week ending May 31 recorded an increase of 4.052 million barrels, while the market expected a decrease of 1.9 million barrels and the previous value was a decrease of 6.49 million barrels, which is bearish for oil prices. Tonight, EIA inventory data will be released, which may affect oil price volatility, and investors need to pay close attention.
OPEC+ extended the production cut agreement to the third quarter of this year over the weekend. However, the market is focused on oil-producing countries gradually releasing capacity starting in the fourth quarter, which is pressuring oil prices in the short term. Nevertheless, with the arrival of the peak summer demand season, oil prices should not be overly bearish.
Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, the previous trading day continued downwards and closed in the red, indicating short-term weakness in oil prices. Indicators show the 20-day and 62-day moving averages turning downwards, signaling a further decline. Intraday, watch for resistance at the $75 level and support at the $71.36 level.
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