XRP is trading near $1.29 after a sharp pullback, while its two-week relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to the lowest level in the token’s 13-year trading history. The reading is now below the extremes recorded during the 2018 bear market, the 2020 COVID-19 shock and the 2022 crypto winter, prompting renewed debate over whether XRP is approaching a cycle low.
Two-week RSI falls below previous extremes
Analyst Cryptollica said XRP’s two-week RSI is currently around 33.5, below the extreme levels seen during several major sell-offs. The RSI is commonly used to track recent price momentum. A falling reading can indicate stronger selling pressure, but the indicator alone cannot confirm that a reversal is under way.
On the longer-term chart, XRP remains within an ascending channel that has extended across multiple market cycles. The current price is close to the lower boundary of that channel, an area that has previously attracted attention as support. Short-term sentiment has weakened sharply during the latest decline, but the longer-term trendline has not yet been decisively broken.
Cryptollica argued that the market may be viewing the current move through too short a time frame. XRP’s price action and sentiment have both deteriorated, and the chart structure has suffered, but the broader trend remains intact. The analysis noted that markets can approach extreme conditions when investors broadly lose interest in holding an asset, and that similar historical readings have at times preceded substantial rebounds. That relationship, however, does not establish that the current decline has already completed its bottoming process.
Two-month RSI returns to a historically weak zone
EGRAG Crypto added that XRP’s two-month RSI has also moved back into a zone that has previously been associated with bottoming phases. The analysis stressed that price action and broader cycle structure may be more important in assessing the market than any single indicator reading.
The combination of signals suggests that XRP is approaching historically unusual oversold conditions across multiple time frames. These readings primarily describe the market’s current state; they do not by themselves resolve whether the trend has reversed. The next direction will still depend on weekly price performance, as well as whether trading activity and momentum begin to improve.
$1.29 and $1.52 define the immediate range
Not all technical analysts believe XRP has established a bottom. Analyst ChartNerd said the token remains compressed between roughly $1.29, near its 20-week exponential moving average (EMA), and $1.52, near its 50-week EMA.
The $1.29 area is both close to the current price and an important level around the 20-week EMA. If XRP fails to hold it and records sustained daily or weekly closes below the level, the next psychological support zone drawing market attention could be around $1.00. ChartNerd said the medium-term chart still shows lower highs and lower lows, a structure more consistent with continued consolidation than a confirmed trend reversal.
In a post on X, ChartNerd said XRP had repeatedly failed to establish a sustained move above the 50-week EMA after rising from $1.70. Whether the latest test of the 20-week EMA holds is therefore critical. Daily and weekly closes below $1.29 could leave the price looking for support near the $1.00 area.
The key issue for XRP is therefore not a single verdict that the token has bottomed, but the coexistence of two sets of signals. The two-week and two-month RSI readings have both entered historically rare low zones, while the long-term ascending channel remains intact. At the same time, XRP is still below longer-term moving averages and its medium-term declining structure has not been broken. Whether weekly prices can hold $1.29 will be an important data point in determining the character of the current pullback.